NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	116		Excitement	8.9 [108]		MVP	Hubert Davis (DAL): +20.3%
Dallas Mavericks	110		Comeback	2.7 [411]		LVP	Shawn Bradley (DAL): -32.6%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.03	0.00	5	90%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	15	64%	0.16	2	-0.12	6	67%	-0.00
Vin Baker	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	11	46%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Desmond Mason	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	9	67%	0.06	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Patrick Ewing	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Emanual Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	58%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	25	48%	0.02	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.04
Ruben Wolkowyski	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	9	55%	0.00	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.00	20	73%	0.23	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.08	0.11	-0.00	9	80%	0.21	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	17	55%	0.14	1	-0.07	8	75%	0.02
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Eduardo Najera	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	7	63%	0.06	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.14	0.00	8	40%	-0.17	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.08
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.33	-0.33	-0.12	-0.22	-0.01	7	50%	-0.12	5	-0.20	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.7	29.5	16.4	28.6	2.4	31.5	134.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -15.5%

SEA +20.2%

SEA +36.5%

SEA +3.8%

SEA +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DAL	NBA	SEA	DAL	NBA
this game	14.7	14.7	15.5	119.6	111.1	100.9
season	15.2	15.2		103.8	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.7		101.2	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.8	12.7	14.8	15.7	14.7
DAL	14.9	16.6	12.4	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	84	85	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.33	14	-8	22	14.6	15.3	-0.69	15.4	10.5	4.86
Desmond Mason	69	71	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.28	8	-2	10	14.6	15.0	-0.41	14.6	14.7	-0.10
Emanual Davis	41	41	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	-3	12	14.2	15.1	-0.94	15.5	14.1	1.43
Ruben Wolkowyski	27	28	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	8	-10	14.8	14.7	0.09	12.3	15.6	-3.33
Gary Payton	87	89	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.37	-4	10	-14	14.5	16.3	-1.77	14.1	19.9	-5.81
Vin Baker	48	50	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.01	4	2	2	15.4	14.1	1.31	15.1	14.2	0.90
Patrick Ewing	42	43	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	6	-6	15.0	14.5	0.59	14.7	14.7	-0.00
Brent Barry	37	37	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.14	6	0	6	15.0	14.5	0.47	15.0	14.5	0.47
Rashard Lewis	58	58	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.07	-9	15	-24	14.7	14.7	-0.01	14.2	15.3	-1.13

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	17	17	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-2	-2	17.2	14.2	3.02	15.8	14.5	1.35
Eduardo Najera	16	17	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.01	-6	0	-6	15.8	14.5	1.35	17.2	14.2	3.06
Hubert Davis	84	81	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.36	6	-12	18	14.2	17.2	-2.97	15.4	11.2	4.22
Dirk Nowitzki	72	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.25	2	-8	10	14.5	15.1	-0.60	14.1	16.3	-2.18
Howard Eisley	35	35	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	1	-8	14.7	14.7	0.01	14.5	14.8	-0.35
Shawn Bradley	51	49	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-1	-4	14.2	15.2	-0.95	14.6	14.8	-0.16
Steve Nash	81	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-3	0	14.7	14.7	0.01	14.6	15.3	-0.70
Courtney Alexander	51	50	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	0	-6	14.8	14.6	0.22	14.3	15.2	-0.89
Michael Finley	88	86	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.34	-7	1	-8	14.7	14.1	0.66	14.3	17.7	-3.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.26,0.13,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.43,0.32,0.59,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.46,0.32,0.18,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 89, HOU 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.46,0.32,0.17,0	91.9%
DET 110, CHH 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.42,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.23,0.27,0	91.3%
SAS 101, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.61,0.55,0.28,0.23,0.05,0	91.0%