NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	85		Excitement	7.7 [279]		MVP	Fred Hoiberg (CHI): +29.1%
Denver Nuggets	89		Comeback	1.6 [837]		LVP	Ron Mercer (CHI): -30.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29	0.13	0.16	0.00	7	93%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Dragan Tarlac	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.03
Metta World Peace	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	7	19%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Khalid El-Amin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.07	-0.02	17	49%	-0.08	0	0.00	11	55%	-0.12
Marcus Fizer	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	7	28%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
A.J. Guyton	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.29	-0.06	-0.24	-0.00	10	32%	-0.29	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ron Mercer	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.28,-0.3	-0.12	-0.17	0.02	19	39%	-0.25	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.11	-0.01	9	55%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	68%	0.09	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.06
Terry Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	7	37%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	8	53%	0.08	4	-0.13	1	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	14	48%	-0.06	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	5	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.17,-0.12,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	9	57%	0.06	4	-0.16	10	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.4	26.6	15.6	24.1	2.3	38.1	135.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +58.0%

DEN +4.6%

DEN +7.0%

CHI -26.3%

DEN +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DEN	NBA	CHI	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	15.7	15.5	94.4	98.9	100.9
season	16.4	15.2		95.2	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.1		104.1	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	19.4	14.5	14.3	17.4	16.3
DEN	14.9	13.2	20.0	15.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Benjamin	22	22	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.01	1	-5	6	16.3	16.3	0.01	15.9	15.6	0.23
Michael Ruffin	33	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	1	-6	17.8	15.4	2.43	16.5	15.2	1.26
Dragan Tarlac	50	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.33	6	-10	16	15.1	17.8	-2.77	15.5	15.9	-0.44
A.J. Guyton	47	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-6	8	15.6	17.1	-1.59	17.0	14.1	2.90
Marcus Fizer	39	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-2	0	15.9	16.6	-0.64	14.2	16.8	-2.62
Khalid El-Amin	43	42	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	2	-8	17.1	15.6	1.59	14.1	17.0	-2.90
Fred Hoiberg	49	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.53	7	-11	18	16.2	16.5	-0.28	15.7	15.6	0.10
Metta World Peace	30	30	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.14	-16	12	-28	17.4	15.8	1.58	14.1	16.5	-2.33
Ron Mercer	79	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-4	4	16.0	18.6	-2.65	16.2	12.0	4.20
Elton Brand	58	59	-0.52	0.01	-0.53	-0.31	-7	3	-10	16.7	15.5	1.21	16.4	14.4	2.03

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	46	45	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.42	12	-8	20	13.8	17.6	-3.77	16.4	16.2	0.22
Antonio McDyess	48	49	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.21	17	-13	30	15.7	15.7	0.04	17.4	15.0	2.36
George McCloud	52	52	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-3	10	15.3	16.2	-0.90	16.5	16.1	0.36
Nick Van Exel	59	59	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	6	-8	16.5	14.1	2.38	16.4	16.2	0.23
Keon Clark	61	62	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.37	-1	5	-6	15.0	17.1	-2.14	15.8	17.4	-1.62
Robert Pack	31	31	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.04	6	-2	8	14.1	16.5	-2.38	16.2	16.4	-0.23
Terry Davis	36	35	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	8	-12	18.0	14.2	3.81	16.6	16.1	0.52
James Posey	38	38	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	7	-10	16.2	15.3	0.90	16.1	16.5	-0.36
Mark Strickland	35	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	8	-12	14.5	16.4	-1.92	15.4	16.9	-1.54
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	44	45	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.04	-8	12	-20	17.6	13.8	3.77	16.2	16.4	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.41,0.6,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.66,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 94, BOS 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.76,0.81,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.43,0.46,0.59,0.65,0.53,0.69,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	91.0%
ATL 103, BOS 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.82,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.79,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.52,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	90.9%
CHI 79, DET 87	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.5,0.66,0.62,0.72,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.87,0.89,0.96,0.9,0.98,1	90.8%