NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	83		Excitement	8.4 [193]		MVP	Patrick Ewing (NYK): +13.5%
Miami Heat	82		Comeback	8.2 [88]		LVP	Clar. Weatherspoon (MIA): -32.9%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Ewing	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.12	0.00	10	62%	0.17	1	-0.03	12	83%	0.03
Kurt Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Larry Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Chris Childs	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	-0.01	10	56%	0.11	1	-0.14	7	86%	0.01
Latrell Sprewell	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	0.01	20	51%	-0.04	0	0.00	7	100%	0.08
Marcus Camby	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allan Houston	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	10	24%	-0.13	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	7	60%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	73%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.01	20	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	10	50%	-0.07
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.14,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.05	0.02	20	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.18,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.15	-0.17	-0.02	15	23%	-0.25	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.33	-0.33	-0.06	-0.27	-0.00	9	30%	-0.33	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	34.1	21.5	29.5	2.6	49.2	164.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +10.7%

NYK +42.6%

MIA -7.9%

NYK +5.8%

MIA -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	18.1	17.7	15.2	102.5	102.5	101.7
season	16.1	15.7		100.0	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.8		98.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	19.4	17.6	19.2	15.8	18.1
MIA	15.6	20.3	15.8	19.2	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Childs	42	42	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.38	14	-13	27	16.6	19.6	-2.95	19.2	16.1	3.06
Patrick Ewing	57	56	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.64	-3	4	-7	19.2	15.4	3.76	17.5	18.2	-0.77
Latrell Sprewell	78	77	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	-1	3	18.2	15.7	2.49	17.6	20.3	-2.72
Marcus Camby	40	40	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	-5	11	16.7	19.4	-2.69	18.2	17.2	1.07
Larry Johnson	61	60	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.49	-8	9	-17	18.3	17.3	0.95	17.2	19.3	-2.12
Allan Houston	71	70	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	1	-1	18.2	17.4	0.75	17.6	18.3	-0.67
Kurt Thomas	17	17	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.06	7	-6	13	15.9	18.6	-2.76	19.9	17.1	2.76
Charlie Ward	39	38	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.11	-13	14	-27	19.6	16.6	2.95	16.1	19.2	-3.06

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	48	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-4	7	16.4	19.7	-3.24	17.6	18.8	-1.21
Anthony Carter	21	21	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.10	-9	8	-17	19.6	17.1	2.52	16.6	18.6	-1.95
Jamal Mashburn	70	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.62	13	-14	27	17.6	18.8	-1.24	18.8	12.3	6.44
Bruce Bowen	10	9	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	13	-27	18.8	17.6	1.24	12.3	18.8	-6.44
Clar. Weatherspoon	29	27	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.20	-3	2	-5	19.3	16.8	2.51	16.5	18.8	-2.31
Otis Thorpe	15	14	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	12	-25	19.8	17.2	2.57	17.4	18.2	-0.85
Tim Hardaway	59	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.57	8	-9	17	17.1	19.6	-2.52	18.6	16.6	1.95
Dan Majerle	73	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.55	6	-7	13	17.6	18.6	-0.94	18.6	11.3	7.27
Alonzo Mourning	75	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.51	4	-5	9	17.6	19.6	-2.01	18.5	9.5	9.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.63,0.22,0.31,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 88, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.63,0.63,0.47,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.14,0.42,0	90.3%
DET 85, NJN 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.32,0.09,0	89.8%
PHX 106, SEA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.57,0.15,0.05,0	89.8%