NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	8.9 [86]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): +37.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	91		Comeback	3.0 [166]		LVP	Glen Rice (LAL): -11.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.37,0.37	0.11	0.28	0.02	15	69%	0.39	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
David Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.07	0.01	6	62%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.10
Mario Elie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	9	44%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	9	60%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Gerard King	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.08,0.01,-0.02	-0.08	0.05	-0.01	8	44%	0.15	3	-0.17	2	0%	-0.03
Antonio Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	19	61%	0.09	4	-0.16	23	83%	-0.02
Malik Rose	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.03	0.13	-0.02	3	75%	0.21	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Sean Rooks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.08,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	11	54%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	14	52%	-0.00	2	-0.03	14	43%	-0.10
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	18	48%	0.09	4	-0.17	6	67%	-0.01
Glen Rice	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.12	-0.04	19	50%	0.09	2	-0.21	10	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.8	34.3	23.4	27.5	3.4	47.6	166.4
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.4%

SAS +4.6%

SAS +10.6%

SAS +1.6%

LAL -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	16.3	14.3	15.8	109.6	96.8	99.6
season	15.9	14.9		101.1	104.7
opponent	15.8	15.9		102.0	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.2	18.5	14.5	14.3	16.3
LAL	14.4	14.9	16.1	12.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	48	47	1.02	-0.52	1.54	0.34	23	-11	34	14.7	17.9	-3.16	16.4	12.3	4.04
Jaren Jackson	58	58	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.14	20	-8	28	15.5	17.5	-1.98	13.5	15.7	-2.24
Tim Duncan	88	88	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.30	4	8	-4	16.4	14.2	2.25	14.6	10.7	3.92
Sean Elliott	61	61	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.24	2	10	-8	16.8	15.4	1.36	14.6	13.9	0.71
Antonio Daniels	25	26	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.22	17	-5	22	15.8	16.5	-0.70	12.7	15.0	-2.28
Jerome Kersey	22	20	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.13	12	0	12	17.2	16.0	1.18	13.5	14.6	-1.07
Avery Johnson	69	68	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.37	-5	17	-22	16.5	15.8	0.70	15.0	12.7	2.28
Gerard King	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	10	-8	4.0	16.4	-12.41	3.5	14.6	-11.08
Malik Rose	21	24	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.21	2	10	-8	16.0	16.3	-0.29	13.8	14.5	-0.74
Will Perdue	21	19	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.07	-3	15	-18	19.0	15.5	3.51	11.2	15.1	-3.99
Mario Elie	56	57	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	0.03	-14	26	-40	16.6	15.8	0.73	14.9	13.5	1.32

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Reid	36	34	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.04	4	-16	20	16.1	13.3	2.82	16.7	16.0	0.72
Sean Rooks	2	2	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-8	4	17.5	14.3	3.23	16.0	16.3	-0.28
Derek Fisher	82	80	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-11	10	14.5	12.9	1.63	16.1	17.0	-0.85
Rick Fox	40	40	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.15	-14	2	-16	13.2	15.2	-2.03	16.1	16.4	-0.35
Derek Harper	12	14	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-1	-10	12.9	14.5	-1.63	17.0	16.1	0.85
Glen Rice	88	87	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-6	0	14.5	12.0	2.50	16.2	16.7	-0.47
Kobe Bryant	87	87	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-6	0	14.1	17.0	-2.87	16.5	13.4	3.08
Robert Horry	51	53	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.36	-6	-6	0	13.8	15.0	-1.17	16.5	16.0	0.40
Shaquille O'Neal	72	73	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.13	-16	4	-20	14.5	13.9	0.56	15.8	17.9	-2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.3,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.57,0.65,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.38,0.46,0.34,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 93, POR 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.47,0.47,0.32,0.36,0.22,0.28,0	91.6%
BOS 103, LAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.37,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.46,0.2,0.01,0	90.8%
MIN 110, NJN 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.33,0.45,0.29,0.16,0	90.8%