NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	103		Excitement	7.5 [295]		MVP	Pau Gasol (LAL): +23.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	94		Comeback	1.9 [316]		LVP	Metta World Peace (LAL): -31.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate Robinson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.12	0.00	2	117%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Ray Allen	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.22	-0.04	0.02	20	76%	0.21	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09	-0.04	0.15	0.02	18	46%	0.17	3	-0.08	5	40%	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	70%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shelden Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	7	60%	-0.01	2	-0.04	6	67%	0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	11	36%	-0.06	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Glen Davis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	13	30%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.17	0.06	-0.00	10	76%	0.28	1	-0.04	13	85%	0.05
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	150%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.03	10	66%	0.18	2	-0.10	12	75%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	20	49%	0.12	5	-0.14	3	100%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	8	33%	-0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.01	10	21%	-0.16	3	-0.16	8	37%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.4	3.6	40.9	21.5	29.2	3.7	41.2	170.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +13.1%

LAL -18.2%

BOS +27.8%

BOS +26.3%

BOS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	LAL	NBA	BOS	LAL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.8	15.3	110.8	100.0	106.0
season	15.5	15.7		105.7	107.9
opponent	15.1	15.7		103.0	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.6	12.6	17.7	15.5	15.0
LAL	14.2	15.6	16.6	17.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	84	83	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.32	12	-3	15	15.2	13.1	2.06	16.3	12.5	3.72
Rajon Rondo	84	84	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.30	12	-3	15	14.5	19.1	-4.59	15.5	19.0	-3.55
Kendrick Perkins	64	63	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	6	-3	14.4	16.3	-1.95	15.6	16.4	-0.78
Rasheed Wallace	36	37	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.08	15	-6	21	14.4	15.4	-0.99	14.9	16.5	-1.59
Kevin Garnett	46	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	8	-7	15.1	14.9	0.24	17.0	14.8	2.20
Paul Pierce	79	80	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	6	-3	15.0	14.9	0.13	15.3	18.9	-3.64
Tony Allen	23	25	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	6	-3	14.2	15.2	-1.05	16.1	15.7	0.40
Glen Davis	30	33	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	6	-3	17.9	13.6	4.33	16.5	15.5	1.06
Shelden Williams	10	10	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	13	-17	11.7	15.4	-3.66	13.6	16.1	-2.50
Nate Robinson	9	10	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.07	-3	12	-15	19.1	14.5	4.59	19.0	15.5	3.55

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shannon Brown	30	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-6	3	16.3	15.6	0.74	13.7	15.5	-1.74
Sasha Vujacic	11	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.11	-7	-2	-5	20.0	15.3	4.72	16.4	14.8	1.66
Lamar Odom	28	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.17	-10	1	-11	16.2	15.7	0.50	15.3	14.8	0.45
Jordan Farmar	27	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.12	-9	0	-9	16.0	15.8	0.19	13.6	15.5	-1.87
Derek Fisher	69	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-13	17	15.1	18.0	-2.90	15.1	14.5	0.57
Andrew Bynum	74	71	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-10	11	16.5	13.2	3.28	15.8	12.4	3.35
Metta World Peace	77	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-9	9	15.6	16.8	-1.21	15.7	11.5	4.19
Kobe Bryant	70	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	0	-9	15.5	16.8	-1.35	14.4	16.8	-2.47
Pau Gasol	84	84	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.30	-12	3	-15	15.5	19.0	-3.55	14.5	19.1	-4.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.37,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.46,0.2,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 99, CLE 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.46,0.32,0.08,0	93.3%
BOS 117, NYK 107	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.34,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.37,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.28,0.23,0.01,0	91.6%
CHI 101, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.54,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.67,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.05,0	91.0%