NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	100		Excitement	5.3 [726]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): +22.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	112		Comeback	1.3 [706]		LVP	Jerome Kersey (SEA): -15.0%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.03	0.03	18	79%	0.23	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Hersey Hawkins	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	8	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	16	64%	0.09	3	-0.06	7	71%	0.01
Greg Anthony	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	6	23%	0.00	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Jim McIlvaine	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	4	60%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Vin Baker	-0.10	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	15	40%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	6	21%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.22	0.03	0.03	20	75%	0.22	0	0.00	12	75%	-0.02
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.03	0.11	-0.03	9	59%	0.17	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.01	0.03	21	65%	0.15	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.03
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	5	46%	0.02	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.02
Jon Barry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	6	58%	0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	10	59%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	5	0%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.6	30.0	17.8	26.2	2.5	35.5	136.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +26.4%

SEA -3.5%

LAL +6.1%

LAL +15.1%

LAL +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	LAL	NBA	SEA	LAL	NBA
this game	16.3	18.0	15.6	119.0	133.3	102.5
season	15.3	14.8		109.3	110.0
opponent	15.6	16.2		102.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	16.9	12.6	18.1	18.3	16.3
LAL	14.4	18.7	17.9	21.7	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jim McIlvaine	13	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-9	6	16.0	16.3	-0.34	13.5	18.9	-5.40
Sam Perkins	40	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-7	2	16.3	16.3	-0.02	18.2	17.8	0.39
Hersey Hawkins	61	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-6	0	15.7	17.7	-2.00	16.8	21.3	-4.55
Detlef Schrempf	72	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-9	6	15.9	18.8	-2.97	17.7	20.4	-2.72
Greg Anthony	37	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-5	-2	16.3	16.3	0.02	20.5	16.1	4.33
Jerome Kersey	33	33	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	0	-12	16.3	16.3	0.08	18.8	17.5	1.30
Dale Ellis	24	23	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	1	-14	17.7	15.7	1.99	21.5	16.7	4.85
Gary Payton	75	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	-6	0	16.3	16.1	0.20	17.6	21.0	-3.36
Vin Baker	65	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	-7	2	16.8	14.7	2.07	17.8	18.8	-1.03

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	76	76	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.16	13	-1	14	17.7	21.1	-3.45	16.4	15.1	1.28
Robert Horry	74	74	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.07	14	-2	16	18.1	17.6	0.45	16.2	16.6	-0.36
Nick Van Exel	53	52	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	2	8	19.1	16.2	2.86	16.1	16.6	-0.55
Shaquille O'Neal	66	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	7	-2	17.3	20.5	-3.18	16.1	17.0	-0.91
Rick Fox	39	39	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.06	7	5	2	17.6	18.3	-0.72	17.3	15.4	1.81
Corie Blount	46	46	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	12	-12	19.9	15.7	4.28	16.8	15.7	1.10
Elden Campbell	18	18	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.01	7	5	2	20.5	17.3	3.18	17.0	16.1	0.91
Derek Fisher	38	41	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.10	1	11	-10	16.7	19.1	-2.35	15.5	17.0	-1.46
Jon Barry	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	10	-8	6.0	18.4	-12.44	10.0	16.4	-6.44
Kobe Bryant	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	11	-10	14.6	18.3	-3.74	14.2	16.4	-2.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.77,0.68,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 98, LAL 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.79,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.84,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
DAL 78, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.0%
DAL 77, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%