NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	92		Excitement	5.7 [633]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +16.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	88		Comeback	1.7 [391]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): -33.1%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.07	-0.03	18	62%	0.21	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Detlef Schrempf	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	10	60%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	7	36%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate McMillan	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.09	-0.04	0.04	12	73%	0.07	2	-0.06	9	89%	0.01
Jerome Kersey	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Sam Perkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.03	-0.03	5	30%	0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	11	43%	-0.08	2	-0.05	8	12%	-0.13

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	15	63%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Micheal Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	69%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	14	67%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Cherokee Parks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	3	58%	0.00	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	12	46%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	13	36%	-0.12	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.25,-0.28,-0.26,-0.26,-0.3,-0.3,-0.32,-0.33	-0.33	-0.19	-0.10	0.04	16	30%	-0.22	5	-0.11	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	2.3	27.2	17.3	25.1	1.6	38.5	132.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +67.9%

MIN -16.5%

MIN -14.6%

SEA +9.0%

SEA +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	MIN	NBA	SEA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.9	17.2	15.6	105.7	101.1	102.5
season	15.3	14.8		109.3	105.3
opponent	15.7	16.2		104.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.3	18.2	16.1	16.6	15.9
MIN	17.4	17.0	18.9	15.4	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	83	83	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.37	6	-2	8	15.7	20.0	-4.25	17.1	19.2	-2.19
Dale Ellis	34	35	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.35	4	0	4	17.5	14.9	2.60	18.0	16.6	1.45
Nate McMillan	24	25	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	-3	10	15.9	16.0	-0.04	17.0	17.2	-0.28
Detlef Schrempf	70	71	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	-1	6	14.7	20.9	-6.21	17.1	17.4	-0.34
Vin Baker	67	67	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	-4	12	17.2	11.7	5.44	18.2	13.7	4.43
Sam Perkins	39	37	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.39	-2	6	-8	16.3	15.7	0.62	15.4	18.5	-3.05
Hersey Hawkins	64	63	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	5	-6	15.7	16.7	-1.02	17.1	17.2	-0.07
Jerome Kersey	39	39	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.12	6	-2	8	15.5	16.3	-0.73	18.2	16.3	1.85
Greg Anthony	15	15	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.23	-13	17	-30	14.9	16.2	-1.30	13.5	17.9	-4.38

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cherokee Parks	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-4	4	0.0	17.4	-17.36	0.0	15.9	-15.94
Tom Hammonds	45	42	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.16	4	-8	12	16.4	18.0	-1.53	17.9	14.1	3.84
Micheal Williams	34	35	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.36	5	-9	14	15.9	18.0	-2.05	16.7	15.4	1.34
Kevin Garnett	64	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-7	10	17.0	17.6	-0.61	16.7	13.2	3.56
Stephon Marbury	74	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	-3	2	17.7	14.2	3.44	16.5	12.6	3.90
Terry Porter	70	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	1	-6	17.0	17.8	-0.82	14.7	20.7	-6.03
Anthony Peeler	83	83	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.34	-8	4	-12	17.3	13.2	4.10	16.0	15.0	0.99
Sam Mitchell	64	63	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.21	-18	14	-32	18.1	14.5	3.59	14.0	21.0	-7.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 101, UTA 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.32,0.17,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.2%
LAC 98, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.44,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.26,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.01,0,0	93.0%
TOR 111, LAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.21,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.2,0.07,0.1,0,0	92.9%