NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	4.9 [813]		MVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): +17.5%
Orlando Magic	99		Comeback	1.1 [969]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -19.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.07	11	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.17	0.00	0.18	13	68%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Voshon Lenard	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	8	31%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	0.04	18	49%	-0.04	3	-0.07	11	45%	-0.07
Tim Hardaway	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.19,-0.2	-0.12	-0.04	0.03	18	41%	-0.08	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.04	0.00	23	66%	0.20	1	-0.02	16	81%	0.01
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	6	83%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	11	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	65%	0.07	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.00
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	10	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	31.0	16.0	28.1	2.5	38.3	142.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +24.2%

ORL +21.0%

MIA -4.3%

ORL +7.3%

ORL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.4	17.7	15.6	108.3	116.5	104.4
season	15.8	16.4		103.1	102.9
opponent	15.5	16.3		103.5	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	16.0	16.3	17.6	16.4
ORL	18.5	18.2	16.5	17.5	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Askins	26	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-5	2	16.1	16.5	-0.42	18.6	17.3	1.26
P.J. Brown	69	70	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-7	6	16.1	18.0	-1.94	17.8	16.9	0.98
Alonzo Mourning	75	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-8	8	16.6	14.7	1.95	18.4	12.4	5.97
Voshon Lenard	68	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	3	-14	16.3	16.9	-0.58	17.1	20.1	-3.06
Tim Hardaway	79	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-3	-2	16.1	21.4	-5.31	17.6	18.8	-1.20
Jamal Mashburn	57	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	0	-8	17.1	14.9	2.23	17.0	19.3	-2.28
Dan Majerle	46	47	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	4	-16	16.6	16.2	0.35	17.7	17.7	0.02

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Schayes	47	46	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.04	19	-11	30	16.9	18.7	-1.79	16.4	16.4	0.07
Dennis Scott	54	52	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.21	10	-2	12	17.5	18.0	-0.47	16.3	16.6	-0.25
Anfernee Hardaway	85	84	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	17.7	0.0	17.67	16.4	0.0	16.40
Gerald Wilkins	57	57	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	-1	10	17.5	18.0	-0.49	16.9	15.3	1.63
Darrell Armstrong	70	70	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	3	2	17.7	17.7	-0.08	16.4	16.4	-0.03
Derek Strong	62	63	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.37	-10	18	-28	18.2	16.1	2.11	16.6	15.9	0.73
Brian Shaw	15	14	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	5	-2	17.7	17.7	0.08	16.4	16.4	0.03
Nick Anderson	35	34	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	12	-16	18.3	17.3	1.00	15.3	17.2	-1.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 93, CHI 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.84,0.73,0.78,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.83,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
SAS 94, OKC 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.8%
MIL 99, ORL 106	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.98,1,1,0.98,1	94.7%