NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	84		Excitement	7.5 [324]		MVP	Terry Porter (MIN): +10.8%
Houston Rockets	96		Comeback	2.4 [567]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): -23.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	8	65%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Doug West	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.03	0.08	10	62%	0.02	1	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Shane Heal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.06	-0.05	14	50%	0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	0.01	0.06	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Sam Mitchell	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	0.08	2	17%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tom Gugliotta	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.06	0.05	21	39%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.17	-0.08	-0.02	25	42%	0.08	7	-0.31	2	0%	-0.05

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	-0.00	3	86%	0.15	1	-0.05	8	100%	0.08
Sedale Threatt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.09	0.14	-0.02	8	45%	0.12	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.12
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.06	0.00	8	60%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.01	12	75%	0.17	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Clyde Drexler	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.04	0.05	17	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charles Barkley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	13	51%	-0.02	5	-0.14	13	62%	-0.06
Eddie Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	6	0%	-0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.8	2.4	29.3	18.8	29.0	3.6	38.5	152.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +10.8%

HOU +34.0%

MIN -7.0%

HOU +7.5%

HOU +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	16.6	15.9	15.6	95.5	107.9	104.4
season	15.5	15.5		103.3	107.2
opponent	15.4	15.5		103.0	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.0	17.8	16.3	17.3	16.6
HOU	16.9	16.4	14.4	16.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Mitchell	21	23	0.34	-0.84	1.17	0.07	9	-21	30	17.3	16.4	0.96	14.5	16.5	-1.98
Terry Porter	32	35	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.04	5	-17	22	16.6	16.6	0.04	16.4	15.7	0.70
Doug West	65	66	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.03	-18	6	-24	15.9	18.5	-2.54	15.8	16.3	-0.43
Stephon Marbury	84	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.17	-12	0	-12	16.5	19.0	-2.51	15.8	18.4	-2.60
Dean Garrett	77	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.28	-9	-3	-6	17.2	12.5	4.64	16.3	14.2	2.05
Kevin Garnett	84	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.14	-14	2	-16	16.3	22.2	-5.92	15.9	17.2	-1.37
Tom Gugliotta	77	77	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.20	-21	9	-30	16.8	15.3	1.52	16.2	14.3	1.86

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Maloney	57	58	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.13	23	-11	34	16.4	15.1	1.33	16.3	17.3	-1.01
Charles Barkley	69	68	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.14	21	-9	30	16.0	15.7	0.25	16.2	17.9	-1.74
Mario Elie	69	69	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.08	21	-9	30	16.4	14.4	1.99	17.0	15.0	2.04
Clyde Drexler	75	75	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.20	12	0	12	16.1	15.2	0.87	16.2	18.8	-2.63
Hakeem Olajuwon	73	74	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-4	20	16.3	14.4	1.84	16.9	14.9	2.08
Eddie Johnson	34	32	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.01	-9	21	-30	14.7	16.7	-1.96	16.6	16.6	-0.06
Kevin Willis	36	34	-0.29	0.80	-1.09	0.09	-13	25	-38	15.2	16.5	-1.31	16.7	16.6	0.12
Sedale Threatt	32	30	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.01	-11	23	-34	15.1	16.4	-1.33	17.3	16.3	1.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.68,0.54,0.43,0.3,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.67,0.81,0.84,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 88, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	92.8%
NYK 83, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.75,0.93,0.96,1,1	92.0%
OKC 89, NOP 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.89,0.98,1,1	92.0%