NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	93		Excitement	7.9 [327]		MVP	Gary Payton II (GSW): +33.3%
Golden State Warriors	104		Comeback	4.0 [417]		LVP	Amen Thompson (HOU): -22.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Smith Jr.	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	8	67%	0.17	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dillon Brooks	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	8	72%	0.19	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Steven Adams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.00	2	80%	0.13	1	-0.04	6	67%	0.01
Tari Eason	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Green	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	11	41%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.00	-0.06	0.03	14	53%	-0.04	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Alperen Sengun	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	18	36%	-0.11	1	-0.01	6	17%	-0.14
Amen Thompson	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.16	-0.10	-0.03	16	32%	-0.10	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.15	0.20	0.02	9	89%	0.33	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.19	0.14	0.01	23	67%	0.36	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	13	65%	0.16	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Moses Moody	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	9	45%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Kuminga	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Quinten Post	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	11	30%	-0.02	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.7	34.3	16.4	28.4	3.5	38.6	150.2
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +46.8%

GSW +7.5%

HOU -11.7%

GSW +15.7%

HOU -8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	14.4	98.9	111.8	113.0
season	14.8	14.5		113.9	112.9
opponent	14.5	14.3		110.5	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.0	14.5	17.4	15.9	15.9
GSW	13.4	14.9	16.9	14.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tari Eason	39	39	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.08	1	-12	13	13.7	17.5	-3.79	14.2	15.4	-1.22
Steven Adams	37	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-12	13	15.4	16.2	-0.83	14.3	15.3	-1.06
Jabari Smith Jr.	53	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.00	-8	-3	-5	14.9	17.1	-2.15	14.3	15.7	-1.37
Dillon Brooks	50	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-11	11	18.2	13.3	4.86	15.8	13.9	1.92
Amen Thompson	72	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	-2	-7	15.9	15.7	0.26	15.7	12.3	3.40
Jalen Green	77	76	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.09	-14	3	-17	15.3	18.6	-3.30	14.6	16.3	-1.69
Alperen Sengun	63	62	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	-1	-9	16.7	14.3	2.42	14.8	15.2	-0.37
Fred VanVleet	79	78	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.20	-16	5	-21	16.3	13.7	2.56	15.1	14.1	1.01

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	77	81	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.01	18	-7	25	15.2	13.4	1.86	15.9	15.8	0.13
Brandin Podziemski	64	64	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-2	15	14.7	15.4	-0.68	16.4	14.8	1.59
Buddy Hield	59	57	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	-4	19	14.6	15.5	-0.88	15.2	17.0	-1.80
Draymond Green	67	67	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	-1	13	14.8	15.3	-0.49	16.2	15.2	0.98
Gary Payton II	41	43	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	11	-11	15.5	14.4	1.11	14.0	17.5	-3.43
Quinten Post	51	52	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.04	7	4	3	14.5	15.4	-0.85	18.1	13.2	4.87
Kevon Looney	26	28	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.08	-1	12	-13	15.3	14.8	0.49	14.8	16.3	-1.56
Moses Moody	49	46	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	15	-19	14.2	15.7	-1.54	14.4	17.3	-2.84
Jonathan Kuminga	31	32	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	16	-21	16.1	14.3	1.82	17.5	15.0	2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.23,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.81,0.97,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 85, CHH 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.72,0.86,0.97,0.97,1,1	93.0%
OKC 103, MIN 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.66,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.96,1	92.2%
NOH 108, MIN 116	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.76,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.9,1,1	92.0%