NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	108		Excitement	7.6 [309]		MVP	Rodney Carney (MIN): +40.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	116		Comeback	3.7 [292]		LVP	Antonio Daniels (NOH): -11.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.13	0.17	-0.02	19	62%	0.32	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	3	133%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	-0.00	15	55%	0.08	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.11	-0.01	0.04	7	86%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	0.00	3	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Melvin Ely	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.04	15	61%	0.16	4	-0.18	8	87%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.1,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.13	0.27	-0.00	8	83%	0.40	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Randy Foye	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.09	0.03	19	53%	0.14	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.05	0.02	19	56%	0.12	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.13	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	57%	0.12	2	-0.08	7	57%	-0.03
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	6	79%	0.09	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Cardinal	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	42%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	6	62%	0.06	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	32.0	15.8	24.3	2.7	31.2	130.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +3.7%

MIN +18.1%

MIN +32.5%

NOH -4.8%

MIN +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIN	NBA	NOH	MIN	NBA
this game	17.1	16.0	15.5	127.1	130.3	106.4
season	16.6	15.8		105.9	104.3
opponent	15.1	15.6		109.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	17.6	16.5	18.1	16.3	17.1
MIN	17.5	15.5	17.0	14.3	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	14	13	0.23	-0.73	0.97	0.06	6	-14	20	19.1	16.7	2.44	16.0	16.0	-0.03
Julian Wright	15	16	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.12	11	-19	30	17.7	17.0	0.76	15.2	16.2	-0.94
Antonio Daniels	23	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-11	14	18.3	16.7	1.64	15.0	16.4	-1.42
Melvin Ely	20	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-7	6	18.1	16.8	1.30	17.8	15.5	2.28
Sean Marks	51	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-7	6	17.6	16.4	1.25	16.5	15.3	1.16
Ryan Bowen	29	31	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	0	-8	15.8	17.8	-1.99	15.0	16.6	-1.57
James Posey	70	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.21	-6	-2	-4	17.0	17.6	-0.60	15.6	17.9	-2.26
Chris Paul	69	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	0	-8	16.6	19.1	-2.49	16.3	14.8	1.49
Rasual Butler	45	47	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.21	-14	6	-20	16.6	17.6	-1.03	15.6	16.5	-0.81
Peja Stojakovic	69	74	-0.85	0.35	-1.19	-0.29	-19	11	-30	16.6	19.1	-2.49	16.2	15.1	1.15

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Jefferson	66	65	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.20	17	-9	26	16.3	15.1	1.26	16.6	18.9	-2.35
Randy Foye	75	72	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-5	18	16.0	16.1	-0.06	16.9	18.3	-1.42
Kevin Love	44	40	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.41	-1	9	-10	14.7	17.3	-2.61	17.0	17.2	-0.15
Mike Miller	57	52	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.33	2	6	-4	14.7	18.3	-3.58	16.6	18.0	-1.41
Rodney Carney	35	34	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.36	0	8	-8	15.2	16.6	-1.40	18.2	16.4	1.83
Ryan Gomes	47	46	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.14	8	0	8	17.3	14.5	2.79	17.2	17.0	0.15
Sebastian Telfair	67	63	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	3	2	16.5	14.5	2.02	17.0	17.3	-0.29
Craig Smith	46	45	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	8	-8	16.9	15.1	1.80	17.6	16.5	1.14
Brian Cardinal	8	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	12	-16	16.6	16.0	0.66	20.0	16.8	3.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.76,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 87, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.66,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.95,1	92.1%
GSW 103, PHX 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.37,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.64,0.75,0.61,0.62,0.89,0.89,0.99,1	91.4%
MIA 84, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.38,0.34,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.45,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	91.2%