NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	6.7 [464]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (DET): +15.3%
Detroit Pistons	92		Comeback	5.1 [476]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -21.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.03	-0.02	14	57%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Brian Grant	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	13	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	0.00	17	45%	-0.11	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.03
Caron Butler	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.01	13	38%	-0.12	3	-0.10	8	62%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	8	69%	0.21	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	17	67%	0.17	2	-0.04	12	92%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.07	0.01	14	50%	0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.07	-0.00	3	83%	0.13	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	12	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	44%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	27%	-0.05	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	10	25%	-0.13	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	1.8	29.9	16.4	27.5	2.5	38.3	144.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +36.8%

DET +9.5%

MIA -5.7%

DET +9.4%

MIA -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	15.3	15.7	91.3	101.1	100.5
season	16.2	16.2		99.3	99.2
opponent	16.0	15.9		92.6	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.1	15.0	17.9	16.8	16.2
DET	16.2	15.6	14.9	14.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	17	15	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.05	2	-10	12	13.5	16.8	-3.23	13.9	15.6	-1.73
Eddie Jones	63	64	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.14	8	-16	24	15.6	17.3	-1.68	15.5	14.7	0.81
Samaki Walker	39	38	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-13	18	16.6	15.8	0.79	15.6	15.1	0.42
Udonis Haslem	32	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-4	0	16.4	16.0	0.42	13.6	16.2	-2.62
Lamar Odom	60	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-6	4	16.0	16.4	-0.42	16.2	13.6	2.60
Rafer Alston	64	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.18	-10	2	-12	16.8	14.7	2.08	14.7	16.7	-2.08
Brian Grant	52	53	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	3	-14	16.0	16.4	-0.37	15.1	15.6	-0.42
Caron Butler	73	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.21	-14	6	-20	16.8	13.7	3.12	16.0	12.5	3.49
Dwyane Wade	60	58	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.22	-14	6	-20	15.8	16.7	-0.90	15.3	15.4	-0.09

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	39	41	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.29	19	-11	30	16.5	14.4	2.11	17.6	15.0	2.57
Rasheed Wallace	73	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-2	12	15.2	15.9	-0.79	16.6	14.4	2.14
Mike James	33	33	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	-3	14	15.0	15.5	-0.48	18.1	15.1	2.96
Ben Wallace	69	66	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	-2	12	15.2	15.8	-0.61	16.2	16.2	-0.04
Tayshaun Prince	67	68	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.15	5	3	2	15.2	15.6	-0.37	15.6	17.9	-2.32
Chauncey Billups	73	74	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	4	0	15.5	14.6	0.87	16.3	15.6	0.69
Mehmet Okur	29	31	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.12	5	3	2	15.2	15.3	-0.10	16.5	16.0	0.44
Corliss Williamson	35	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.15	-6	14	-20	16.2	14.8	1.40	16.5	16.0	0.51
Lindsey Hunter	37	37	-0.52	1.02	-1.55	0.01	-18	26	-44	14.0	16.2	-2.25	12.4	18.7	-6.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.38,0.34,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.45,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 86, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.81,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.7%
LAC 88, MIA 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.44,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.72,0.89,0.89,0.93,1,1	92.3%
POR 99, DAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.35,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.37,0.22,0.42,0.43,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.86,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.87,1	92.2%