NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	88		Excitement	7.5 [303]		MVP	Marko Jaric (LAC): +6.6%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	2.4 [710]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -22.8%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marko Jaric	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	7	71%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	11	45%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	14	59%	0.05	5	-0.10	11	82%	0.02
Quentin Richardson	-0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.02	0.03	17	50%	0.02	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	2	62%	-0.02	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Corey Maggette	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	15	46%	0.00	4	-0.18	5	60%	-0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.11	-0.11	0.01	6	54%	0.01	6	-0.24	1	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	10	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	12	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	70%	0.05	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.04
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	9	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	-0.00	17	53%	0.05	5	-0.16	13	77%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.14	-0.09	-0.00	11	42%	-0.05	5	-0.17	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	28.1	15.7	28.1	2.4	35.7	138.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +3.4%

MIA +13.9%

MIA +6.6%

MIA +24.3%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	MIA	NBA	LAC	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	15.7	94.6	103.2	100.5
season	15.5	16.2		101.3	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	15.2	16.8	14.4	16.1	15.6
MIA	13.6	18.3	15.6	13.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Kaman	7	7	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-13	17	15.6	15.6	0.01	18.3	15.0	3.29
Marko Jaric	60	61	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-9	9	15.3	16.0	-0.68	15.8	14.2	1.64
Chris Wilcox	36	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-8	7	15.1	15.9	-0.78	15.7	14.9	0.82
Eddie House	50	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-6	3	16.2	14.9	1.30	15.3	15.2	0.07
Matt Barnes	58	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.14	-10	1	-11	16.1	14.7	1.31	15.1	15.6	-0.50
Corey Maggette	90	92	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	15.4	19.3	-3.90	15.4	8.0	7.40
Elton Brand	86	87	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.19	-13	4	-17	15.6	15.6	-0.01	15.0	18.3	-3.29
Quentin Richardson	78	78	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.27	-15	6	-21	15.4	16.6	-1.24	14.5	18.9	-4.37

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	52	53	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-2	13	14.0	16.7	-2.70	15.9	15.1	0.76
Eddie Jones	79	77	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-3	15	14.7	17.9	-3.20	15.3	16.8	-1.51
Malik Allen	46	44	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.16	9	0	9	15.1	15.4	-0.31	15.6	15.6	0.02
Dwyane Wade	76	74	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.27	1	8	-7	15.9	12.6	3.26	15.7	15.1	0.64
Lamar Odom	87	85	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	5	-1	15.4	13.7	1.65	15.2	19.5	-4.31
Caron Butler	68	68	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	2	5	15.7	13.9	1.83	15.5	15.8	-0.38
Udonis Haslem	56	58	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	10	-11	15.5	14.8	0.68	15.9	15.0	0.85
Wang Zhi-zhi	6	6	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	7	-5	15.7	15.2	0.45	17.7	15.4	2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.44,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.72,0.89,0.89,0.93,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 102, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.71,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.94,1,1	94.2%
POR 83, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	93.1%
NOH 102, SAS 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.9,0.84,1,1,1	92.8%