NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	117		Excitement	7.7 [352]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +17.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	115		Comeback	1.7 [1230]		LVP	Desmond Bane (MEM): -19.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.18	0.21	0.01	0.04	24	62%	0.21	1	-0.03	13	85%	0.03
Isaiah Joe	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.07	-0.01	7	79%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.15	0.04	0.06	-0.05	21	52%	0.20	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Chet Holmgren	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.02	9	46%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.04
Alex Caruso	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	5	43%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.03
Aaron Wiggins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	53%	0.07	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	7	69%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Jaylin Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kenrich Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	24%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Santi Aldama	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.17	0.05	0.05	13	88%	0.24	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vince Williams Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.01	0.03	5	92%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Zach Edey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	80%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
John Konchar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jay Huff	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Stevens	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scotty Pippen Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.00	21	58%	0.22	5	-0.26	10	100%	0.06
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	12	40%	-0.04	5	-0.10	6	100%	0.03
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2	-0.20	-0.07	-0.06	0.07	20	48%	-0.05	5	-0.14	8	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	3.4	33.4	15.7	34.2	3.4	42.4	160.8
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +1.8%

OKC +13.9%

MEM -17.0%

OKC +47.7%

OKC +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MEM	NBA	OKC	MEM	NBA
this game	13.9	14.2	14.4	114.7	111.7	113.0
season	13.8	13.3		117.4	115.6
opponent	14.3	14.7		112.2	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.2	14.3	12.6	15.8	13.9
MEM	13.9	13.4	14.6	14.9	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Williams	81	80	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.47	6	-4	10	14.3	12.4	1.92	14.0	14.8	-0.76
Isaiah Hartenstein	51	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	-6	14	15.1	12.7	2.35	14.8	13.6	1.25
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	83	83	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.28	2	0	2	13.6	15.1	-1.41	13.9	15.3	-1.37
Luguentz Dort	62	63	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	0	2	13.5	14.5	-1.07	13.5	15.3	-1.89
Cason Wallace	44	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	0	2	13.4	14.3	-0.83	16.1	12.7	3.33
Chet Holmgren	62	64	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.30	-3	5	-8	13.8	14.0	-0.24	13.9	14.7	-0.88
Alex Caruso	54	55	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.37	-9	11	-20	14.3	13.5	0.84	13.8	14.7	-0.92
Aaron Wiggins	33	32	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.07	6	-4	10	11.8	14.9	-3.13	14.9	13.9	0.99
Isaiah Joe	28	28	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	2	-2	16.0	13.1	2.89	14.9	13.9	1.01
Jaylin Williams	8	9	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	4	-6	12.1	14.1	-1.93	13.0	14.3	-1.31
Kenrich Williams	4	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	4	-6	10.5	14.0	-3.54	10.0	14.4	-4.41

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Williams Jr.	42	39	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.19	8	-10	18	13.6	14.6	-1.01	13.8	14.0	-0.13
Luke Kennard	40	39	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.21	8	-10	18	14.3	14.1	0.13	12.9	14.5	-1.58
Jay Huff	13	13	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	3	-8	15.5	14.0	1.54	13.2	14.0	-0.86
Jaren Jackson Jr.	76	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.58	9	-11	20	14.1	14.6	-0.54	14.0	13.7	0.25
Zach Edey	65	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	3	-8	14.8	13.2	1.60	14.7	12.5	2.20
John Konchar	37	38	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.01	-14	12	-26	14.2	14.2	-0.05	12.6	14.7	-2.02
Santi Aldama	83	84	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-2	2	14.0	14.8	-0.75	14.5	10.9	3.59
Desmond Bane	83	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-1	0	13.8	15.9	-2.18	13.5	15.4	-1.86
Scotty Pippen Jr.	76	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.22	-9	7	-16	14.5	13.3	1.27	14.2	13.1	1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.08,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 102, LAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
MIN 100, GSW 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.52,0.36,0.36,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.11,0.02,0,0,0	93.3%
CHA 111, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.27,0.18,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.2%