NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	109		Excitement	5.7 [661]		MVP	Jrue Holiday (BOS): +12.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	102		Comeback	1.4 [1059]		LVP	Isaac Okoro (CLE): -10.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.02	-0.03	11	73%	0.15	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	5	92%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jaylen Brown	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	15	69%	0.21	5	-0.10	9	78%	0.02
Jayson Tatum	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.02	25	56%	0.13	4	-0.05	9	100%	0.04
Luke Kornet	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	5	75%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Hauser	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	13	66%	0.13	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Garland	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	27	54%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.03	18	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Merrill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	7	47%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0	0.00	0.09	-0.05	0.04	12	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dean Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaac Okoro	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.7	31.3	16.4	27.4	3.5	32.4	141.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +28.6%

BOS +16.3%

BOS +14.9%

CLE -7.4%

CLE -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CLE	NBA	BOS	CLE	NBA
this game	15.6	15.3	14.5	116.0	110.9	113.9
season	14.9	14.8		120.7	113.0
opponent	14.7	14.7		111.3	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.4	15.5	15.3	18.9	15.6
CLE	14.3	15.8	16.0	15.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jrue Holiday	85	84	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.30	7	0	7	15.5	17.1	-1.64	15.4	14.9	0.51
Al Horford	55	53	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	-4	15	15.7	15.5	0.28	15.0	15.7	-0.71
Jayson Tatum	84	84	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	1	5	15.7	15.3	0.37	15.5	13.2	2.29
Derrick White	63	61	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.20	4	3	1	14.8	17.3	-2.48	14.6	16.7	-2.12
Payton Pritchard	48	47	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	3	1	16.0	15.2	0.85	15.6	15.1	0.53
Jaylen Brown	68	66	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.19	2	5	-3	15.7	15.5	0.12	14.8	16.6	-1.73
Sam Hauser	30	28	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.04	5	2	3	16.0	15.5	0.50	16.5	14.8	1.72
Luke Kornet	37	37	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.14	-4	11	-15	16.2	15.2	1.02	16.0	14.9	1.15

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Georges Niang	15	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-5	3	16.0	15.2	0.79	14.3	15.9	-1.54
Isaac Okoro	40	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-1	-5	15.9	14.9	1.04	15.4	15.8	-0.49
Tristan Thompson	15	15	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	1	-9	17.8	14.9	2.94	18.0	15.2	2.82
Dean Wade	49	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-9	11	14.4	16.4	-1.94	15.8	15.5	0.29
Sam Merrill	35	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-2	-3	14.9	15.6	-0.77	14.4	16.4	-2.00
Evan Mobley	77	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-6	5	14.9	17.8	-2.94	15.4	16.9	-1.50
Darius Garland	78	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.35	1	-8	9	15.5	14.3	1.24	15.5	16.2	-0.61
Max Strus	79	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-4	1	15.6	14.0	1.56	16.2	11.6	4.64
Caris LeVert	72	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.24	-13	6	-19	15.3	15.5	-0.27	15.8	15.1	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.32,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 107, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0	94.6%
WAS 137, MIN 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.21,0.19,0.29,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
HOU 81, NOH 68	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.35,0.35,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.3%