NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	107		Excitement	5.8 [612]		MVP	Elliot Perry (MIL): +19.7%
Toronto Raptors	100		Comeback	1.2 [758]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (TOR): -14.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elliot Perry	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.07	-0.02	10	83%	0.23	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Michael Curry	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	8	70%	0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0.02	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	18	60%	0.15	4	-0.13	6	83%	0.02
Terrell Brandon	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	16	47%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	8	68%	0.07	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.02
Armen Gilliam	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	56%	0.00	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Jerald Honeycutt	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	8	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.02	12	73%	0.13	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Trent	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.02	14	62%	0.05	2	-0.09	11	55%	-0.04
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	11	67%	0.12	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	14	44%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Reggie Slater	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	4	30%	-0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	12	17%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	11	29%	-0.10	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	24.3	16.4	22.6	2.5	41.5	133.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +55.9%

MIL +10.0%

TOR -12.9%

TOR -0.9%

TOR -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.5	14.8	15.6	110.3	101.0	102.5
season	16.0	15.5		101.1	98.7
opponent	14.8	15.1		108.2	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	15.3	13.7	15.1	14.5
TOR	13.1	15.3	16.8	14.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	81	83	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.07	20	-13	33	14.2	16.2	-1.97	15.1	13.6	1.45
Ervin Johnson	69	71	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-4	15	14.4	14.8	-0.39	15.4	13.5	1.92
Michael Curry	78	79	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.17	12	-5	17	14.3	15.7	-1.41	15.1	14.0	1.05
Terrell Brandon	79	81	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.25	7	0	7	14.0	16.8	-2.74	14.9	14.7	0.14
Armen Gilliam	72	73	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.22	7	0	7	14.1	15.9	-1.80	14.2	16.5	-2.31
Jerald Honeycutt	39	40	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	12	-17	15.6	13.9	1.70	15.1	14.6	0.48
Jamie Feick	13	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	9	-11	15.5	14.4	1.06	15.5	14.7	0.72
Elliot Perry	41	42	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.24	-10	17	-27	16.0	13.5	2.43	14.2	15.3	-1.08
Ricky Pierce	13	13	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	12	-17	16.1	14.3	1.77	12.8	15.1	-2.29

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oliver Miller	54	53	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-13	19	14.1	15.7	-1.60	14.8	14.2	0.67
Dee Brown	58	58	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.30	7	-14	21	14.3	15.5	-1.19	15.1	13.7	1.39
Reggie Slater	42	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.10	-2	-5	3	16.8	13.4	3.42	15.1	14.2	0.90
John Wallace	37	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-1	-5	13.0	16.0	-2.98	15.0	14.3	0.72
Chauncey Billups	73	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.28	0	-7	7	14.8	15.0	-0.27	13.8	16.5	-2.68
Alvin Williams	27	28	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	2	-11	14.5	15.0	-0.44	16.0	14.0	2.04
Tracy McGrady	75	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	5	-17	15.0	14.4	0.56	14.6	14.3	0.27
Doug Christie	67	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	5	-17	14.8	14.9	-0.10	13.6	16.6	-2.97
Gary Trent	62	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	0	-7	15.8	13.2	2.59	14.3	15.1	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, MIN 84	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
GSW 86, POR 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.02,0	94.5%
UTA 99, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.07,0,0,0	94.3%