NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	104		Excitement	9.6 [116]		MVP	Derrick White (BOS): +104.8%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	18.8 [101]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -16.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	1.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,1.05	0.05	0.96	-0.04	10	55%	1.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.00	5	77%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jaylen Brown	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.08	0.02	16	62%	0.19	4	-0.10	10	80%	0.06
Sam Hauser	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	10%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.07	0.05	-0.13	-0.01	15	62%	0.02	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.04
Jayson Tatum	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,-0.16	0.04	-0.22	-0.02	22	53%	-0.06	3	-0.10	15	100%	0.08

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.16,0.58	0.58	-0.03	0.59	-0.02	21	43%	0.65	2	-0.07	14	86%	0.25
Caleb Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.02	0.03	13	70%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	6	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.08,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0	0.00	0.07	-0.07	0.00	11	59%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.01	8	53%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	18	42%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.06	0.03	16	31%	-0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.3	35.5	16.3	36.7	3.4	41.5	161.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +103.3%

MIA -42.2%

MIA -1.1%

MIA -21.2%

BOS +11.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	15.9	14.4	114.3	112.0	113.4
season	14.5	15.1		116.3	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.6		112.1	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.5	14.8	14.0	19.4	15.6
MIA	16.1	16.5	17.4	13.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	71	70	0.55	-0.10	0.64	0.28	9	-2	11	15.7	12.6	3.10	16.5	15.8	0.74
Jayson Tatum	77	79	0.53	-0.08	0.61	0.26	9	-2	11	14.7	21.6	-6.91	16.3	17.3	-0.99
Jaylen Brown	66	68	0.52	-0.07	0.60	0.14	13	-6	19	14.8	16.9	-2.17	17.3	12.7	4.63
Robert Williams III	31	32	0.30	0.15	0.16	0.16	5	2	3	15.1	15.3	-0.17	16.2	16.6	-0.41
Marcus Smart	73	74	0.14	0.31	-0.16	0.26	-4	11	-15	15.7	12.1	3.62	16.1	18.6	-2.56
Grant Williams	43	43	0.12	0.33	-0.21	0.06	2	5	-3	15.4	15.0	0.37	15.8	17.0	-1.21
Al Horford	55	56	0.09	0.36	-0.26	0.09	0	7	-7	15.2	15.2	-0.01	16.3	16.6	-0.32
Sam Hauser	4	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.03	1	0	1	15.7	15.6	0.18	15.7	15.9	-0.23

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	38	37	0.49	-0.23	0.72	0.26	8	-7	15	15.5	16.5	-1.02	17.5	14.3	3.25
Bam Adebayo	87	86	0.39	-0.13	0.51	0.15	8	-7	15	16.1	16.2	-0.19	15.6	15.2	0.40
Caleb Martin	75	77	0.38	-0.12	0.49	0.29	3	-2	5	16.0	16.4	-0.37	16.0	13.5	2.46
Jimmy Butler	88	88	0.25	0.01	0.25	0.20	2	-1	3	16.1	15.7	0.41	15.6	15.7	-0.09
Gabe Vincent	79	80	0.24	0.02	0.22	0.24	0	1	-1	15.9	17.0	-1.08	14.9	20.3	-5.34
Kyle Lowry	36	34	-0.04	0.30	-0.35	-0.07	1	0	1	16.0	16.1	-0.06	15.8	15.5	0.34
Cody Zeller	4	5	-0.13	0.39	-0.51	0.08	-7	8	-15	16.2	16.1	0.19	15.2	15.6	-0.40
Max Strus	48	48	-0.28	0.54	-0.82	0.01	-10	11	-21	16.9	15.2	1.71	14.4	16.9	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 104, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.4%
HOU 100, LAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.37,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.26,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.12,0,0,0	93.1%
LAC 100, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.07,0,0,0	93.1%