NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	114		Excitement	7.5 [433]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +81.5%
Miami Heat	119		Comeback	34.2 [24]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (MIA): -18.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0.31	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.31,0.31	0.20	0.15	0.04	23	69%	0.35	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Jrue Holiday	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.18,0.18,0.1	-0.07	0.11	-0.05	19	37%	0.18	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Grayson Allen	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joe Ingles	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jevon Carter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Bobby Portis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	6	42%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,-0.02,-0.04	-0.00	-0.06	-0.03	22	54%	0.17	6	-0.20	4	50%	-0.01
Khris Middleton	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	12	50%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.66,0.82	0.82	0.44	0.47	0.10	28	76%	0.83	1	-0.01	18	83%	0.10
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.12	0.22	0.00	5	100%	0.34	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	5	90%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	16	43%	-0.02	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	13	38%	-0.01	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.4	31.6	16.2	28.5	3.5	42.2	153.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.5%

MIA +5.4%

MIA +9.6%

MIL -3.4%

MIL -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	13.2	14.4	109.6	114.4	113.4
season	14.0	15.1		113.8	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.2		112.1	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	14.7	12.8	16.2	14.4
MIA	13.6	14.7	14.3	10.5	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Portis	25	25	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.10	-2	-3	1	16.1	13.9	2.21	13.5	13.2	0.30
Jevon Carter	1	0	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-5	5	0.0	14.6	-14.58	0.0	13.2	-13.25
Pat Connaughton	44	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.22	-11	6	-17	15.9	13.3	2.58	11.3	14.7	-3.43
Joe Ingles	36	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.14	-9	4	-13	14.8	14.2	0.56	14.8	12.5	2.29
Khris Middleton	80	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.50	5	-10	15	13.9	16.2	-2.30	14.0	10.9	3.09
Grayson Allen	75	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.49	2	-7	9	14.6	14.1	0.47	13.0	13.9	-0.96
Jrue Holiday	88	89	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.40	-2	-3	1	14.1	16.3	-2.21	13.4	12.5	0.84
Giannis Antetokounmpo	85	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.53	1	-6	7	14.0	16.5	-2.55	13.3	12.9	0.37
Brook Lopez	86	87	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.32	-9	4	-13	14.4	14.7	-0.27	13.0	14.7	-1.74

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	52	51	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.47	16	-11	27	12.2	14.2	-2.00	16.4	12.6	3.79
Kyle Lowry	50	50	0.90	-0.40	1.31	0.37	18	-13	31	12.0	14.4	-2.33	16.1	12.9	3.23
Duncan Robinson	62	61	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.33	15	-10	25	13.2	13.3	-0.10	15.9	12.4	3.41
Bam Adebayo	67	66	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.55	-1	6	-7	14.0	11.9	2.07	13.8	15.6	-1.87
Jimmy Butler	90	89	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.40	4	1	3	13.3	13.1	0.21	13.5	19.9	-6.34
Cody Zeller	15	16	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.08	3	2	1	10.7	13.7	-3.02	16.9	14.0	2.87
Haywood Highsmith	31	31	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.09	-1	6	-7	14.2	12.8	1.34	14.9	14.3	0.61
Kevin Love	50	50	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.12	-6	11	-17	13.8	12.7	1.14	13.1	15.6	-2.51
Max Strus	38	40	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.03	-10	15	-25	14.3	12.6	1.72	12.5	15.6	-3.08
Gabe Vincent	65	66	-0.42	0.92	-1.33	-0.04	-13	18	-31	13.3	13.2	0.07	13.6	15.8	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.25,0.37,0.23,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 100, DAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.2,0.38,0.21,0.45,0.63,1	92.4%
MIA 96, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.23,0.73,1	92.0%
NJN 101, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.42,1	91.2%