NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	101		Excitement	9.1 [123]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +20.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	103		Comeback	2.8 [468]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -33.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.18,0.13	0.13	-0.01	0.00	17	65%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	6	70%	0.08	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.21,0.07	0.07	-0.02	-0.02	16	63%	0.16	4	-0.08	11	91%	0.11
Robert Williams III	-0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	9	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	9	41%	-0.00	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Marcus Smart	-0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.33	-0.09	-0.22	0.02	8	37%	-0.24	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.06
Jayson Tatum	-0.34	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.20	-0.13	0.01	19	24%	-0.26	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.21,0.02,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.09	0.02	30	58%	0.31	3	-0.11	12	75%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	10	55%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	9	45%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jrue Holiday	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	30	42%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Grayson Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	2.8	33.2	15.3	33.8	2.8	37.3	155.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +65.0%

BOS -19.1%

MIL +13.5%

BOS -13.8%

MIL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	13.5	14.5	98.1	99.0	110.8
season	14.9	13.7		112.2	112.2
opponent	14.8	14.7		109.4	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.5	14.4	15.0	13.4	14.4
MIL	11.7	13.9	11.1	17.9	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	44	46	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.16	9	-11	20	13.7	14.9	-1.20	13.8	13.2	0.69
Payton Pritchard	23	23	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-7	12	14.7	14.3	0.36	13.3	13.5	-0.15
Daniel Theis	6	6	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	0	-2	11.7	14.5	-2.87	13.7	13.4	0.22
Grant Williams	70	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.45	8	-10	18	13.6	16.0	-2.36	14.3	11.5	2.77
Al Horford	81	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.42	2	-4	6	14.0	15.7	-1.67	14.0	11.3	2.73
Jaylen Brown	85	86	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	2	-6	14.4	14.1	0.38	13.7	12.6	1.10
Robert Williams III	53	50	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	11	-24	16.0	12.6	3.44	11.4	15.4	-4.01
Jayson Tatum	91	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.36	-5	3	-8	14.6	12.7	1.83	13.2	15.1	-1.86
Marcus Smart	62	63	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.31	-10	8	-18	14.5	14.2	0.33	13.3	13.8	-0.49

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	71	70	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.31	11	-9	20	13.1	14.2	-1.14	14.8	13.4	1.39
Jrue Holiday	91	90	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	-1	4	13.4	13.8	-0.44	14.7	12.0	2.71
Brook Lopez	59	62	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.31	5	-3	8	13.6	13.3	0.30	15.3	13.0	2.36
Pat Connaughton	73	70	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.43	-1	3	-4	13.5	13.3	0.24	14.3	14.5	-0.22
Giannis Antetokounmpo	87	85	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.46	-2	4	-6	13.4	13.6	-0.22	14.2	15.4	-1.24
Bobby Portis	55	56	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	-3	8	13.2	13.7	-0.52	14.1	14.7	-0.69
George Hill	25	23	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	3	-4	13.6	13.4	0.13	12.1	15.0	-2.94
Jevon Carter	6	4	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	4	-6	17.8	13.2	4.64	7.5	14.6	-7.15
Grayson Allen	53	55	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.03	-8	10	-18	13.6	13.4	0.21	14.4	14.4	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.73,0.79,0.67,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.83,0.71,0.87,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 102, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.23,1	91.9%
TOR 94, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.79,0.84,0.42,1	91.5%
POR 117, PHX 118	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.26,1	90.4%