NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	14.6 [1]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +41.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	109		Comeback	2.7 [473]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -48.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.41	0.11	0.30	-0.00	17	74%	0.55	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.17	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.17	0.16	0.03	0.02	13	83%	0.28	2	-0.11	3	100%	0.14
Trevor Ariza	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.01	8	50%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.07	-0.00	10	42%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	40%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.31,-0.31	-0.09	-0.22	-0.00	15	29%	-0.29	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.48	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.37,-0.37,-0.24,-0.24,-0.31,-0.31,-0.42,-0.48	-0.24	-0.25	-0.01	22	31%	-0.06	6	-0.42	10	70%	-0.09

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.04,-0.07,0.29	0.29	0.05	0.25	0.01	22	54%	0.42	2	-0.13	6	67%	-0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.08	0.17	-0.00	10	64%	0.27	1	-0.02	8	87%	-0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	62%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	45%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	18	50%	0.14	5	-0.22	4	50%	-0.07
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	5	30%	-0.09	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.21,-0.32,-0.24,-0.18,-0.28,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36	-0.36	-0.17	-0.20	-0.00	27	39%	-0.10	5	-0.26	13	46%	-0.34

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.1	3.3	29.4	13.8	24.4	3.3	44.0	2.4	13.8	161.5
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	2.3	15.8	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -24.2%

MIL +24.0%

MIL +53.7%

MIL +7.3%

MIA -10.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	14.1	14.4	95.5	98.2	111.3
season	14.6	13.5		109.3	114.8
opponent	14.7	14.9		109.3	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	12.9	16.2	16.2	12.9	14.2	14.4
MIL	13.8	12.6	13.3	14.8	19.1	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Nunn	53	52	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-5	8	13.7	15.1	-1.38	13.7	14.4	-0.61
Andre Iguodala	31	33	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-4	6	14.4	14.5	-0.04	14.4	13.9	0.46
Tyler Herro	36	38	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-3	4	16.4	13.5	2.86	14.4	13.9	0.49
Dewayne Dedmon	21	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	5	-12	17.6	13.7	3.85	13.7	14.2	-0.42
Bam Adebayo	91	88	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.48	5	-7	12	13.7	17.6	-3.85	14.2	13.7	0.42
Duncan Robinson	79	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.47	2	-4	6	14.0	15.5	-1.56	13.9	14.5	-0.57
Goran Dragic	70	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-1	0	14.7	14.1	0.56	14.6	13.2	1.41
Trevor Ariza	83	81	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.38	-7	5	-12	14.2	15.1	-0.93	13.9	14.5	-0.54
Jimmy Butler	96	95	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.41	-8	6	-14	14.6	13.7	0.81	13.9	15.2	-1.30

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jrue Holiday	86	87	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.44	10	-8	18	14.0	14.5	-0.53	14.7	13.5	1.24
Brook Lopez	76	79	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.42	6	-4	10	14.1	14.1	-0.06	14.3	14.8	-0.57
Khris Middleton	95	97	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.50	0	2	-2	13.9	14.8	-0.87	14.0	17.1	-3.10
Giannis Antetokounmpo	96	98	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	0	2	14.3	12.8	1.47	14.3	15.4	-1.12
P.J. Tucker	35	33	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	-6	14	13.8	14.2	-0.36	16.6	13.5	3.06
Donte DiVincenzo	81	84	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.44	-6	8	-14	14.2	13.8	0.37	13.5	17.2	-3.64
Bryn Forbes	29	28	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.08	2	0	2	13.7	14.2	-0.56	15.3	14.2	1.17
Bobby Portis	35	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	6	-10	14.1	14.1	0.06	14.8	14.3	0.57
Pat Connaughton	22	21	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	10	-18	14.8	13.9	0.87	15.0	14.3	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.71,0.55,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 94, PHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.64,0.65,0.39,0.62,0.54,0.67,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.67,0.42,1	89.7%
ORL 102, MEM 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.47,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.79,0.69,0.82,1	89.4%
IND 110, MIN 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	89.4%