NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	11.0 [33]		MVP	Jeff Green (MEM): +37.0%
Memphis Grizzlies	108		Comeback	28.9 [55]		LVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): -33.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.05	0.01	9	84%	0.21	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Mario Hezonja	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	3	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.1,0.07	0.10	-0.03	0.00	11	73%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Elfrid Payton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.1,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	11	54%	0.16	5	-0.28	4	50%	-0.08
Nikola Vucevic	-0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.13,-0.09,-0.02,-0.13,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.09	-0.17	-0.02	17	47%	-0.04	5	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,-0.29	-0.10	-0.20	-0.01	10	22%	-0.23	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.55,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.17	0.20	-0.01	18	68%	0.48	2	-0.11	8	75%	-0.01
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.06	0.01	12	62%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	9	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.05
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	16	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.06
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	5	20%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.07	0.03	13	40%	-0.10	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.07	-0.26	0.00	20	39%	-0.21	1	-0.12	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	27.3	15.4	26.2	1.8	29.0	2.6	18.2	146.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -26.1%

ORL -4.4%

MEM +52.2%

MEM +29.5%

ORL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MEM	NBA	ORL	MEM	NBA
this game	14.6	16.2	14.9	100.0	103.8	105.1
season	14.6	15.7		103.6	103.4
opponent	14.8	14.9		106.7	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	12.9	17.1	14.2	14.3	14.6	14.6
MEM	16.4	12.9	18.5	20.0	11.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	22	24	0.36	-0.86	1.23	0.01	12	-18	30	16.1	14.2	1.91	16.3	16.2	0.15
Shabazz Napier	27	29	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.07	8	-14	22	15.8	14.2	1.55	15.1	16.7	-1.55
Mario Hezonja	15	16	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.03	5	-11	16	17.1	14.2	2.85	12.2	17.0	-4.77
Dewayne Dedmon	4	5	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-5	4	18.0	14.5	3.50	14.2	16.3	-2.12
Aaron Gordon	51	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.12	-11	5	-16	13.8	15.5	-1.63	16.2	16.2	0.04
Jason Smith	35	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.33	4	-10	14	15.7	14.1	1.60	14.1	17.5	-3.43
Evan Fournier	66	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.32	1	-7	8	15.3	13.4	1.89	16.2	16.3	-0.13
Victor Oladipo	72	74	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	4	-14	13.7	16.8	-3.02	16.9	14.5	2.42
Elfrid Payton	75	75	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.25	-14	8	-22	14.2	15.8	-1.55	16.7	15.1	1.55
Nikola Vucevic	77	76	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.36	-14	8	-22	14.2	15.8	-1.59	16.7	14.9	1.82
Tobias Harris	77	77	-0.82	0.32	-1.15	-0.36	-16	10	-26	14.3	15.8	-1.49	16.4	15.7	0.65

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	82	77	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.64	9	-3	12	16.6	15.0	1.61	14.4	15.3	-0.85
Courtney Lee	66	67	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.31	16	-10	26	17.0	14.8	2.17	13.6	16.7	-3.16
Mike Conley	77	76	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-5	16	16.5	15.3	1.20	14.1	16.3	-2.19
Jeff Green	64	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	2	2	14.3	19.2	-4.88	15.1	14.0	1.15
Marc Gasol	84	81	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	2	2	16.3	15.7	0.65	14.1	16.7	-2.56
Ryan Hollins	12	13	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	2	2	17.0	16.1	0.88	17.5	14.2	3.24
Mario Chalmers	27	26	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	11	-16	15.3	16.5	-1.20	16.3	14.1	2.19
Vince Carter	9	10	-0.17	0.68	-0.85	0.09	-9	15	-24	12.2	16.6	-4.38	18.5	14.2	4.28
Zach Randolph	65	66	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.43	6	0	6	17.2	14.5	2.73	14.1	15.6	-1.51
Matt Barnes	34	33	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.01	-10	16	-26	15.9	16.4	-0.46	16.5	13.7	2.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.47,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.79,0.69,0.82,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 105, DET 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.48,0.42,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.45,0.71,0.55,0.42,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.77,0.72,1	90.6%
LAL 109, NYK 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.54,0.8,0.74,0.9,0.96,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.86,0.95,1	90.4%
POR 94, MIL 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.64,0.55,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.53,0.64,0.81,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.91,1,1	90.1%