NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	111		Excitement	6.8 [484]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (LAC): +23.7%
LA Clippers	105		Comeback	10.1 [59]		LVP	Lou Williams (LAC): -17.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.10	-0.00	7	62%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.14,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.01	25	49%	0.14	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	3	75%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	11	57%	0.11	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.03	0.12	0.01	17	58%	0.23	6	-0.15	4	50%	-0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.07	0.03	0.07	0.03	3	70%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.24	0.24	0.17	0.09	0.02	24	65%	0.32	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.06
Paul George	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.05	0.02	18	62%	0.18	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Marcus Morris Sr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	10	57%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.03	-0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Landry Shamet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terance Mann	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02
Ivica Zubac	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.02	-0.01	8	28%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	10	20%	-0.16	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.8	30.3	18.7	28.3	3.3	39.0	149.3
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +50.2%

LAC -1.3%

DEN +2.4%

LAC -3.3%

DEN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	15.5	14.5	14.2	115.6	109.4	109.6
season	15.0	13.8		112.0	113.2
opponent	14.4	14.5		107.0	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.8	16.5	15.1	13.7	15.5
LAC	12.0	15.5	14.9	15.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	45	47	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.36	13	-7	20	14.4	16.5	-2.11	14.4	14.6	-0.15
Nikola Jokic	80	80	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.27	13	-7	20	15.8	14.2	1.53	14.1	16.4	-2.27
Jamal Murray	79	79	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.35	9	-3	12	15.8	14.1	1.71	14.6	14.0	0.58
Jerami Grant	70	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.36	5	1	4	16.0	14.3	1.72	14.5	14.5	-0.08
Gary Harris	52	50	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.31	-1	7	-8	16.5	14.4	2.09	15.3	13.6	1.63
Torrey Craig	37	38	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	14	-22	15.1	15.8	-0.63	13.5	15.1	-1.66
Paul Millsap	58	57	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.10	2	4	-2	15.8	15.2	0.60	14.8	14.0	0.81
Monte Morris	36	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.18	2	4	-2	13.8	16.5	-2.74	14.7	14.4	0.30

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terance Mann	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-6	6	2.0	14.6	-12.61	23.0	15.4	7.56
Landry Shamet	28	28	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.14	-4	-2	-2	14.7	14.4	0.33	14.8	15.8	-1.04
Ivica Zubac	61	63	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.14	5	-11	16	13.8	15.6	-1.81	16.5	13.6	2.96
Patrick Beverley	55	53	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.16	-7	1	-8	14.5	14.4	0.07	16.5	14.3	2.29
JaMychal Green	27	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-4	2	15.0	14.3	0.72	15.2	15.6	-0.43
Marcus Morris Sr.	73	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.16	-3	-3	0	14.5	14.4	0.06	15.5	15.6	-0.08
Lou Williams	40	41	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.58	5	-11	16	14.0	14.8	-0.82	13.8	16.8	-3.00
Montrezl Harrell	32	31	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.23	-9	3	-12	16.0	13.7	2.23	14.1	16.2	-2.10
Paul George	83	84	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.42	-3	-3	0	14.8	12.5	2.24	15.8	13.6	2.21
Kawhi Leonard	80	79	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.25	-12	6	-18	14.2	16.0	-1.82	15.5	15.8	-0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.81,0.88,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.47,0.35,0.22,0.14,0.06,0.15,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 126, POR 122	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.85,0.77,0.72,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.53,0.35,0.18,0.14,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.6%
DAL 103, SAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.87,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.62,0.67,0.58,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.1,0.07,0,0,0	93.9%
HOU 119, POR 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.63,0.41,0.2,0.28,0.1,0.05,0.05,0,0	92.9%