NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	137		Excitement	21.1 [1]		MVP	Rodney Hood (POR): +87.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	140		Comeback	20.5 [98]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -60.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.39	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.39	0.02	0.38	0.01	13	61%	0.56	3	-0.17	2	0%	-0.03
Will Barton	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.01,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.22	0.04	0.15	-0.03	18	55%	0.45	2	-0.23	4	75%	-0.03
Gary Harris	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.01	12	54%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.00	6	69%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	1	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Monte Morris	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	8	25%	-0.04	2	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.15,0.27,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,-0.17,-0.22,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	0.01	-0.32	0.01	32	52%	0.12	4	-0.44	2	100%	0.06
Nikola Jokic	-0.60	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.02,-0.11,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.38,-0.38,-0.57,-0.52,-0.52,-0.52,-0.52,-0.52,-0.52,-0.52,-0.6	0.00	-0.60	0.00	25	60%	-0.11	8	-0.49	5	60%	-0.17

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.29,0.88	0.88	0.17	0.68	-0.02	8	83%	0.88	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.11	-0.00	14	48%	0.18	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.10
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	7	53%	0.07	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.10	-0.00	24	52%	0.05	2	-0.11	6	100%	0.04
CJ McCollum	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.32,0.27,0.16,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.33,0.23,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,-0.11	-0.11	0.06	-0.17	-0.00	39	49%	0.02	1	-0.13	6	83%	0.03
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	0.03	-0.26	0.00	16	55%	-0.14	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.43,-0.43,-0.43,-0.43,-0.43	-0.43	-0.11	-0.32	-0.01	9	30%	-0.35	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2		OT3		OT4	Total
this game	26.2	3.0	28.5	14.8	29.4	3.4	30.3	2.5	15.2	2.5	10.0	2.5	16.1	2.4	17.5	204.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	3.3	15.6	3.3	15.6	3.3	15.6	3.3	15.6	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -63.1%

POR +13.2%

POR +3.2%

POR +92.8%

POR +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	17.2	15.4	14.3	109.6	112.0	109.3
season	14.8	14.9		112.0	112.6
opponent	13.9	14.6		109.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	16.0	16.6	18.2	17.1	20.9	17.3
POR	16.7	14.7	14.5	14.3	14.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	87	89	0.25	-0.75	0.99	0.16	3	-6	9	17.7	16.0	1.67	16.1	13.9	2.19
Jamal Murray	97	100	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.10	6	-9	15	17.3	17.0	0.29	16.1	12.9	3.21
Monte Morris	25	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	1	-5	17.3	17.2	0.11	13.1	16.0	-2.93
Torrey Craig	69	67	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-3	3	16.0	18.6	-2.60	16.2	14.6	1.67
Mason Plumlee	24	24	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	7	-17	17.1	17.2	-0.08	12.0	16.3	-4.22
Nikola Jokic	118	119	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.50	5	-8	13	17.3	16.1	1.11	15.7	11.3	4.32
Paul Millsap	88	87	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.31	-8	5	-13	17.3	16.9	0.46	15.8	14.6	1.29
Will Barton	70	70	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.47	-4	1	-5	18.0	16.2	1.74	15.3	15.7	-0.43
Malik Beasley	47	45	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.62	-3	0	-3	16.3	17.8	-1.50	13.7	16.4	-2.75

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Enes Kanter	101	102	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.50	2	1	1	16.0	13.0	2.98	17.5	15.9	1.57
CJ McCollum	110	110	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.37	6	-3	9	15.6	14.3	1.34	17.3	16.4	0.90
Damian Lillard	105	106	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	-1	5	15.7	14.3	1.31	17.3	16.6	0.66
Al-Farouq Aminu	82	82	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.18	6	-3	9	16.2	14.0	2.21	17.7	16.3	1.39
Rodney Hood	46	46	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	1	1	13.8	16.4	-2.64	16.2	17.8	-1.65
Zach Collins	38	35	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	0	3	13.1	16.5	-3.37	16.9	17.3	-0.43
Seth Curry	39	40	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.23	-1	4	-5	14.0	16.1	-2.14	16.0	17.8	-1.79
Evan Turner	24	24	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.08	-6	9	-15	15.2	15.5	-0.35	16.1	17.5	-1.37
Maurice Harkless	63	62	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.13	-1	4	-5	16.4	14.5	1.98	17.6	16.8	0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.59,0.62,0.76,0.84,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.67,0.45,0.24,0.41,0.46,0.31,0.72,0.57,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.64,0.67,0.27,0.46,0.33,0.45,0.29,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 86, LAC 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.43,0.33,0.22,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.45,0.42,0	86.4%
DAL 98, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.62,0.46,0.15,0.27,0	86.3%
ORL 106, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.73,0.64,0.66,0.82,0.75,0.63,0.45,0.15,0	86.2%