NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	6.5 [555]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +38.2%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	27.3 [141]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAS): -20.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.16	0.14	0.00	19	66%	0.32	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.07
Marco Belinelli	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	5	73%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Derrick White	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	71%	0.13	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	5	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	42%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	20	48%	0.09	1	-0.08	10	80%	0.02
Davis Bertans	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	6	42%	-0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.09	-0.10	0.01	9	26%	-0.13	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.14,0.23,0.37,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.10	0.28	-0.00	17	59%	0.38	0	0.00	7	86%	0.04
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.09	0.02	10	74%	0.22	1	-0.01	7	71%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.17	0.00	0.01	16	70%	0.16	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	10	52%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.06	15	58%	0.04	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	10	12%	-0.15	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.7	29.0	14.7	31.6	3.4	28.3	136.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.2%

SAS -4.3%

SAS -8.8%

DEN +24.1%

DEN +7.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.8	14.3	106.1	117.5	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		111.7	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.4		108.1	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.1	14.0	15.6	17.1	14.6
DEN	15.6	14.3	13.8	15.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	43	43	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.01	5	-14	19	14.5	14.7	-0.20	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Davis Bertans	35	34	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.05	-1	-8	7	13.3	15.3	-2.04	14.2	15.2	-0.98
Quincy Pondexter	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	11.0	14.7	-3.69	21.0	14.7	6.32
Lonnie Walker IV	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	11.0	14.7	-3.69	21.0	14.7	6.32
Donatas Motiejunas	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	11.0	14.7	-3.69	21.0	14.7	6.32
Dante Cunningham	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	11.0	14.7	-3.69	21.0	14.7	6.32
Bryn Forbes	54	53	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.33	10	-19	29	14.9	14.2	0.69	15.1	14.5	0.66
Marco Belinelli	48	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.18	-10	1	-11	14.4	14.7	-0.35	14.4	15.2	-0.81
Patty Mills	43	42	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	4	-17	13.9	15.1	-1.26	14.7	14.9	-0.18
DeMar DeRozan	65	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-4	-1	15.4	13.0	2.44	14.8	14.9	-0.08
Derrick White	64	65	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	0	-9	15.0	13.8	1.16	14.6	15.3	-0.74
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.14	-12	3	-15	14.5	14.8	-0.27	14.6	15.5	-0.89
Rudy Gay	55	54	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.22	-18	9	-27	15.3	13.7	1.65	15.3	14.2	1.05

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	59	59	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.19	25	-16	41	14.7	15.0	-0.31	15.5	13.2	2.27
Gary Harris	70	71	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.16	22	-13	35	14.7	15.1	-0.41	15.2	13.1	2.10
Nikola Jokic	81	80	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.19	17	-8	25	14.4	16.8	-2.39	14.8	13.4	1.43
Malik Beasley	45	47	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-4	17	15.7	14.1	1.59	14.9	14.2	0.69
Jamal Murray	72	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	11	-13	15.2	13.6	1.69	14.4	15.2	-0.89
Monte Morris	49	50	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.07	0	9	-9	14.4	15.2	-0.86	14.2	15.0	-0.76
Will Barton	55	54	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.02	-6	15	-21	14.1	15.8	-1.71	14.1	15.1	-0.98
Mason Plumlee	41	42	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	15	-21	15.2	14.6	0.62	14.4	14.7	-0.26
Torrey Craig	13	17	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	0.13	-18	27	-45	16.7	14.5	2.17	10.5	15.4	-4.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.16,0.28,0.22,0.34,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, WAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.22,0.33,0.17,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.94,0.99,1	93.2%
HOU 106, LAL 111	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.25,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.17,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.35,0.31,0.61,0.63,0.9,0.98,1	92.3%
NYK 79, LAC 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.85,0.91,1	91.9%