NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	1.6 [624]		MVP	Pascal Siakam (TOR): +31.2%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	1.2 [939]		LVP	Kawhi Leonard (TOR): -13.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.31	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.31	0.23	0.08	-0.01	20	73%	0.31	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Danny Green	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.02	11	59%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	10	55%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.18	-0.01	-0.06	19	36%	-0.02	6	-0.12	7	86%	0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.06	-0.01	17	65%	0.24	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.05	0.02	13	69%	0.18	5	-0.11	6	100%	0.03
Khem Birch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.05	0.02	11	54%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Wes Iwundu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	5	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	7	50%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	10	45%	-0.04	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	12	25%	-0.09	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	3.4	27.7	14.0	29.0	2.8	31.6	135.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +44.0%

ORL -9.5%

TOR +8.8%

TOR +2.0%

TOR +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.1	14.3	101.0	98.9	109.3
season	14.3	14.9		111.5	107.2
opponent	14.3	14.5		107.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.4	13.9	14.5	18.7	15.0
ORL	14.3	14.9	18.3	13.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pascal Siakam	84	82	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.22	13	-8	21	14.7	17.5	-2.81	15.5	12.8	2.63
Kyle Lowry	82	78	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.27	8	-3	11	15.1	14.6	0.51	15.4	13.9	1.43
Danny Green	68	65	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-5	15	14.0	17.6	-3.60	15.7	13.8	1.88
Kawhi Leonard	78	73	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.37	1	4	-3	14.8	15.9	-1.14	15.2	15.0	0.23
Marc Gasol	56	53	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	0	5	14.4	15.9	-1.43	15.2	15.0	0.14
Serge Ibaka	40	41	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.22	0	5	-5	16.2	14.2	2.07	15.0	15.2	-0.14
Norman Powell	26	27	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	3	-1	16.2	14.6	1.64	14.4	15.4	-0.96
Fred VanVleet	47	46	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.28	-11	16	-27	16.1	14.0	2.13	14.1	16.1	-2.08
Jodie Meeks	4	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	8	-11	19.5	14.8	4.66	11.0	15.4	-4.36

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khem Birch	17	17	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-5	5	14.6	15.2	-0.66	15.9	14.8	1.10
Terrence Ross	61	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.38	9	-14	23	14.0	17.2	-3.21	16.1	13.1	3.04
Michael Carter-Williams	31	31	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-4	3	14.2	15.6	-1.44	16.1	14.5	1.61
Jonathan Isaac	57	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-2	-1	15.7	14.2	1.55	14.4	16.0	-1.52
Wes Iwundu	25	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-2	-1	15.6	15.0	0.64	14.3	15.3	-0.98
D.J. Augustin	63	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-1	-3	15.6	14.2	1.44	14.5	16.1	-1.61
Evan Fournier	72	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	4	-13	15.5	13.8	1.77	15.0	15.1	-0.12
Nikola Vucevic	77	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	0	-5	15.2	14.6	0.66	14.8	15.9	-1.10
Aaron Gordon	67	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	4	-13	15.0	15.4	-0.39	14.9	15.5	-0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.31,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 120, HOU 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.23,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
DET 112, CHA 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.15,0.13,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
IND 98, DET 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.4%