NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	112		Excitement	9.7 [88]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +22.7%
Boston Celtics	114		Comeback	7.4 [197]		LVP	Joel Embiid (PHI): -23.1%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dario Saric	0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.14	0.12	0.03	0.01	14	69%	0.43	3	-0.28	11	73%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.09	0.00	8	45%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Justin Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Covington	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben Simmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.05,0.05,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	15	56%	0.13	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	13	50%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
T.J. McConnell	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.02	7	64%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Embiid	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.23	0.03	-0.26	0.00	18	57%	-0.03	4	-0.20	11	82%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.14	0.01	15	61%	0.27	2	-0.04	11	82%	0.06
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.05	0.02	13	80%	0.24	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.08
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	8	72%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,0.02,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.06	-0.02	8	48%	0.13	2	-0.07	13	62%	-0.09
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	16	45%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Semi Ojeleye	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	15	47%	0.02	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.05
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	10	25%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.6	28.2	16.4	39.5	0.1	40.7	156.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI -10.4%

BOS +10.8%

BOS +1.6%

BOS +44.7%

BOS +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	BOS	NBA	PHI	BOS	NBA
this game	13.6	14.7	14.7	109.8	112.9	107.5
season	13.9	15.1		108.1	106.4
opponent	14.7	14.7		103.5	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	15.0	14.0	12.4	13.2	13.6
BOS	14.4	14.8	16.4	13.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	37	36	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.24	-1	-1	0	12.4	14.3	-1.93	14.7	14.8	-0.03
Marco Belinelli	23	22	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.06	-1	-1	0	15.2	13.2	1.98	14.6	14.8	-0.19
Justin Anderson	6	4	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	1	-4	12.3	13.7	-1.39	17.5	14.6	2.87
JJ Redick	82	84	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.46	11	-13	24	12.8	17.1	-4.37	15.0	13.6	1.39
Robert Covington	48	45	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	5	-12	12.4	14.7	-2.34	13.1	16.1	-2.94
T.J. McConnell	78	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-5	8	14.3	11.5	2.79	15.4	12.6	2.82
Joel Embiid	82	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.60	3	-5	8	14.0	12.0	2.04	14.8	14.7	0.09
Dario Saric	84	83	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.52	-2	0	-2	14.0	12.2	1.79	14.7	14.8	-0.04
Ben Simmons	70	70	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.42	-13	11	-24	14.2	12.5	1.70	14.7	14.9	-0.19

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Smart	71	72	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.43	10	-8	18	14.2	16.0	-1.79	13.2	14.7	-1.55
Al Horford	81	82	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.42	8	-6	14	14.6	15.5	-0.94	14.0	11.9	2.10
Terry Rozier	82	83	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	-3	8	14.5	15.6	-1.03	14.5	9.7	4.79
Jayson Tatum	83	86	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.36	0	2	-2	14.7	15.1	-0.45	13.6	13.9	-0.28
Jaylen Brown	65	64	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.16	0	2	-2	15.5	13.4	2.10	13.5	13.9	-0.45
Aron Baynes	53	51	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.32	-6	8	-14	15.5	14.0	1.49	13.8	13.5	0.25
Marcus Morris	52	54	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	3	-4	14.3	15.2	-0.98	13.1	14.2	-1.12
Semi Ojeleye	18	18	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.02	-6	8	-14	15.5	14.6	0.92	11.5	14.1	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.75,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.66,0.78,0.69,0.36,0.14,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 87, NJN 93	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.71,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.67,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,1	90.7%
SAS 76, NJN 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.83,0.72,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.32,0.58,1	90.2%
DEN 106, MEM 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.37,0.22,0.27,1	89.9%