NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	1.9 [1286]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +13.2%
Golden State Warriors	136		Comeback	1.0 [1292]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): -8.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonathon Simmons	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.00	0.05	17	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	7	31%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.10	0.00	0.10	4	130%	0.00	3	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	75%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	41%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	12	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.17	0.00	-0.13	12	31%	-0.03	5	-0.01	2	100%	-0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	5	54%	-0.01	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	11	36%	-0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.26	0.00	0.13	13	88%	0.15	2	-0.02	7	100%	0.01
Patrick McCaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.15	0.00	0.11	8	95%	0.04	2	-0.01	3	100%	-0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	10	73%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	10	54%	0.02	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Ian Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	7	71%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	71%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.03	3	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Damian Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Michael McAdoo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	5	75%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	6	17%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	52%	0.00	3	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	3.5	28.5	17.3	29.4	2.5	27.6	136.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +48.8%

SAS -0.3%

SAS -3.1%

GSW +3.1%

GSW +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.5	12.6	14.8	98.0	132.0	107.7
season	15.4	13.5		110.1	114.9
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.3	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.4	16.0	14.1	14.7	15.5
GSW	12.6	15.3	9.9	13.5	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	25	26	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-31	26	14.7	15.7	-0.99	13.5	12.3	1.20
Davis Bertans	36	38	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.26	-9	-27	18	15.1	15.7	-0.64	12.2	12.9	-0.64
Bryn Forbes	50	51	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.29	-12	-24	12	14.3	16.6	-2.30	12.1	13.2	-1.04
David Lee	10	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	-29	22	14.7	15.6	-0.85	11.2	12.8	-1.60
Manu Ginobili	11	10	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.13	-10	-26	16	16.4	15.4	1.00	11.2	12.8	-1.60
Kyle Anderson	54	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.39	-21	-15	-6	15.0	16.0	-1.08	12.9	12.4	0.46
Dejounte Murray	58	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.56	-27	-9	-18	14.9	16.2	-1.33	12.9	12.4	0.51
Dewayne Dedmon	44	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.46	-24	-12	-12	15.1	15.7	-0.63	11.7	13.4	-1.67
Pau Gasol	33	33	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-29	22	16.5	15.0	1.54	13.2	12.4	0.84
Patty Mills	44	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.00	-9	-27	18	16.2	14.9	1.33	12.4	12.9	-0.51
Danny Green	35	35	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-28	20	16.4	15.0	1.41	13.2	12.3	0.89
Jonathon Simmons	54	55	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.34	-21	-15	-6	16.3	14.6	1.72	12.8	12.5	0.34
LaMarcus Aldridge	56	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.23	-20	-16	-4	15.9	15.0	0.90	13.2	12.0	1.16

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	62	61	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.22	20	16	4	11.9	13.8	-1.93	15.5	15.4	0.18
Klay Thompson	62	61	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.37	25	11	14	13.1	11.9	1.27	15.9	14.8	1.11
Stephen Curry	67	66	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.35	24	12	12	12.1	13.7	-1.62	15.5	15.4	0.13
Kevin Durant	58	58	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.26	21	15	6	12.7	12.5	0.23	15.7	15.2	0.51
Shaun Livingston	28	29	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.43	23	13	10	11.9	12.9	-0.98	16.3	15.1	1.22
Patrick McCaw	55	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.33	19	17	2	12.9	12.4	0.46	14.8	16.3	-1.52
Ian Clark	46	44	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.35	18	18	0	13.7	11.8	1.91	15.8	15.2	0.53
David West	27	27	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.21	13	23	-10	15.4	11.6	3.80	17.1	14.9	2.23
Zaza Pachulia	14	13	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	29	-22	13.6	12.5	1.08	18.3	15.1	3.25
JaVale McGee	23	23	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.24	12	24	-12	10.9	13.1	-2.28	14.8	15.7	-0.83
Damian Jones	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	34	-32	12.5	12.7	-0.13	13.4	15.8	-2.37
James Michael McAdoo	24	24	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	34	-32	12.8	12.6	0.25	14.5	15.8	-1.32
Matt Barnes	34	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.16	-6	42	-48	11.4	13.3	-1.88	13.7	16.4	-2.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 89, ORL 127	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.3%
DET 91, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,1	98.1%
PHX 107, DET 131	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%