NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	106		Excitement	6.6 [477]		MVP	Paul Pierce (WAS): +10.2%
Washington Wizards	101		Comeback	1.2 [937]		LVP	Drew Gooden (WAS): -17.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.04	0.02	20	55%	0.13	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Kent Bazemore	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	2	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pero Antic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	78%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Mike Muscala	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.03	13	61%	0.08	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.01
Dennis Schroder	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	13	47%	0.06	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Kyle Korver	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	31%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	18	50%	0.04	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1	0.10	0.18	-0.04	0.04	13	79%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.03	0.02	25	58%	0.12	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	75%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	7	71%	0.07	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	14	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	4	40%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	7	19%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	6	25%	-0.09	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.6	31.0	17.8	27.2	3.5	39.5	147.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +33.7%

ATL +9.9%

WAS -0.4%

ATL +8.0%

WAS -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.7	15.0	15.1	109.3	104.1	104.2
season	14.9	15.1		106.7	102.9
opponent	15.3	15.4		101.7	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.6	13.8	15.7	15.8	14.7
WAS	16.4	15.6	15.7	12.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	80	79	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	-5	15	14.7	14.8	-0.06	15.1	14.5	0.59
Dennis Schroder	58	56	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.39	4	1	3	15.1	14.2	0.89	14.5	15.7	-1.18
Kyle Korver	71	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	-2	9	14.6	14.9	-0.29	15.0	15.0	0.02
Pero Antic	28	29	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	-2	9	13.2	15.3	-2.05	16.0	14.6	1.41
Kent Bazemore	32	30	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.15	3	2	1	14.5	14.8	-0.36	16.4	14.3	2.10
Jeff Teague	67	70	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	-1	7	14.5	15.3	-0.80	14.6	16.0	-1.47
DeMarre Carroll	66	65	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.43	-9	14	-23	15.0	14.0	1.05	15.0	14.9	0.06
Paul Millsap	55	57	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	5	-5	14.8	14.6	0.16	14.8	15.2	-0.46
Mike Muscala	28	28	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.15	-3	8	-11	15.6	14.3	1.26	14.4	15.2	-0.77

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	9	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.07	-7	2	-9	11.0	15.4	-4.39	12.4	14.9	-2.55
Nene	65	63	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-5	5	14.7	15.6	-0.96	14.9	14.4	0.42
Will Bynum	33	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	1	-7	13.4	15.8	-2.40	13.7	15.2	-1.53
Drew Gooden	36	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	0	-5	15.1	14.9	0.12	15.0	14.5	0.43
Ramon Sessions	65	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	-4	3	15.6	13.8	1.74	15.2	13.7	1.53
Marcin Gortat	59	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-2	-1	16.4	12.7	3.73	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Paul Pierce	67	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-5	5	15.5	13.8	1.76	14.4	15.4	-1.00
Bradley Beal	89	89	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.38	0	-5	5	15.2	12.4	2.84	14.9	12.4	2.55
Otto Porter	62	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-2	-1	13.8	17.1	-3.34	14.9	14.3	0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.09,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 87, DET 81	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.13,0.08,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.1,0	94.5%
WAS 109, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.27,0.24,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0	94.1%
MEM 114, OKC 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.04,0,0,0	93.9%