NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	120		Excitement	1.4 [1310]		MVP	Pau Gasol (CHI): +8.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	66		Comeback	1.0 [951]		LVP	Michael Carter-Williams (MIL): -7.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.01	12	66%	0.10	1	-0.01	5	60%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.14	0.00	0.06	7	100%	0.09	3	-0.01	6	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	7	69%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Taj Gibson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	53%	0.02	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	14	54%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	14	57%	0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jorge Gutierrez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.11	0.00	-0.11	8	17%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	9	28%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	7	37%	0.01	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	3	86%	-0.00	2	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	4	67%	-0.02	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	-0.06	8	25%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	6	36%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	6	21%	-0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.8	36.3	16.7	30.0	2.8	26.1	140.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +25.9%

CHI +6.4%

CHI +8.4%

CHI +8.0%

CHI +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.2	15.1	125.0	68.0	104.2
season	15.5	14.5		105.4	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		101.0	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.0	15.4	15.2	17.3	15.7
MIL	14.4	12.9	12.5	17.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	65	67	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.85	46	8	38	15.3	16.5	-1.14	13.4	15.9	-2.50
Derrick Rose	52	53	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.80	41	13	28	15.4	16.0	-0.51	13.5	15.0	-1.47
Joakim Noah	50	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.73	38	16	22	17.1	14.2	2.89	14.8	13.6	1.21
Pau Gasol	63	64	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.53	30	24	6	15.3	16.5	-1.18	13.2	16.0	-2.77
Mike Dunleavy	58	59	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.53	29	25	4	15.5	15.9	-0.45	13.7	14.9	-1.23
Taj Gibson	50	53	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.12	13	41	-28	16.8	14.4	2.43	13.2	15.4	-2.17
Kirk Hinrich	40	40	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	52	-50	17.0	14.7	2.31	12.9	15.1	-2.13
Aaron Brooks	31	32	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.11	7	47	-40	17.3	14.9	2.33	14.7	13.9	0.72
Nikola Mirotic	16	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.38	13	41	-28	12.2	16.4	-4.19	16.6	13.7	2.87
Tony Snell	21	20	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.44	15	39	-24	17.3	15.2	2.12	17.8	13.2	4.57
Nazr Mohammed	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.41	14	40	-26	12.2	16.2	-4.08	17.8	13.6	4.15
E'Twaun Moore	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.23	8	46	-38	11.2	16.1	-4.92	17.6	13.9	3.76
Doug McDermott	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.41	14	40	-26	11.4	16.3	-4.87	18.3	13.6	4.75

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jorge Gutierrez	20	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.44	-15	-39	24	17.8	13.2	4.57	17.3	15.2	2.12
Johnny O'Bryant	20	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.44	-15	-39	24	17.8	13.2	4.57	17.3	15.2	2.12
Tyler Ennis	30	31	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.23	-8	-46	38	15.4	13.6	1.77	15.9	15.6	0.33
Miles Plumlee	30	31	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.23	-8	-46	38	15.4	13.6	1.77	15.9	15.6	0.33
Jared Dudley	42	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	-45	36	12.5	15.4	-2.91	15.1	16.1	-0.97
John Henson	32	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.38	-21	-33	12	13.1	14.7	-1.61	15.7	15.7	-0.02
Jerryd Bayless	60	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.28	-18	-36	18	15.0	12.9	2.12	15.8	15.5	0.35
Michael Carter-Williams	40	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.77	-35	-19	-16	12.8	15.1	-2.34	15.2	16.0	-0.77
Zaza Pachulia	35	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.47	-25	-29	4	14.1	14.2	-0.10	15.5	15.8	-0.30
O.J. Mayo	53	52	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.37	-23	-31	8	12.9	15.7	-2.72	15.2	16.2	-1.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	32	31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.34	-22	-32	10	14.5	14.0	0.53	15.4	15.8	-0.43
Ersan Ilyasova	35	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.55	-30	-24	-6	14.1	14.2	-0.14	15.3	15.9	-0.55
Khris Middleton	56	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.82	-41	-13	-28	13.3	15.4	-2.06	15.7	15.6	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 110, SAC 83	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.2%
DET 113, NYK 86	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.1%
MIL 104, CHI 70	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.0%