NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	3.1 [1169]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (SAS): +18.8%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	1.1 [523]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -8.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.25	0.00	0.07	13	88%	0.20	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.01
Danny Green	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.03	8	88%	0.12	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	10	58%	0.02	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	56%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Matt Bonner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	8	61%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	64%	0.06	4	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Jeff Ayres	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.15	0.00	0.09	7	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	4	112%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Greg Oden	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	8	58%	0.04	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	14	71%	0.13	7	-0.13	3	67%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	12	69%	0.07	5	-0.08	8	75%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	9	40%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	0.00	-0.04	5	17%	-0.05	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	2.8	32.5	18.6	32.1	3.5	36.5	155.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.4%

SAS +1.8%

MIA -2.0%

SAS +14.0%

SAS +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	16.0	15.1	124.7	107.0	105.2
season	15.0	15.6		109.8	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.0		105.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.7	18.0	17.1	18.9	16.9
MIA	17.6	15.5	14.7	16.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	70	68	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.14	20	-1	21	16.8	17.1	-0.29	16.0	16.1	-0.11
Kawhi Leonard	74	71	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.12	19	0	19	16.7	17.6	-0.87	15.7	17.3	-1.59
Danny Green	41	39	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.05	14	5	9	16.6	17.1	-0.54	16.4	15.7	0.61
Tony Parker	65	60	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	7	5	16.6	17.7	-1.08	15.2	17.8	-2.61
Patty Mills	25	27	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.02	10	9	1	16.3	17.1	-0.83	16.7	15.7	0.94
Tiago Splitter	27	27	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	8	3	17.7	16.5	1.24	17.5	15.4	2.13
Tim Duncan	58	55	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	11	-3	16.7	17.2	-0.54	15.6	16.8	-1.28
Manu Ginobili	49	49	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	10	-1	16.7	17.1	-0.36	16.1	15.9	0.14
Jeff Ayres	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	19	-19	17.0	16.9	0.13	15.0	16.1	-1.06
Cory Joseph	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	17.0	16.9	0.13	21.0	15.9	5.10
Aron Baynes	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	19	-19	17.0	16.9	0.13	15.0	16.1	-1.06
Matt Bonner	17	17	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	24	-29	17.6	16.7	0.95	16.3	16.0	0.34
Marco Belinelli	10	9	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.08	-4	23	-27	21.1	16.3	4.76	17.4	15.9	1.59

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	3	4	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.07	4	-23	27	19.3	15.9	3.43	13.5	17.0	-3.54
Shane Battier	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	15.0	16.1	-1.06	17.0	16.9	0.13
Udonis Haslem	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	15.0	16.1	-1.06	17.0	16.9	0.13
Toney Douglas	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	15.0	16.1	-1.06	17.0	16.9	0.13
Greg Oden	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	15.0	16.1	-1.06	17.0	16.9	0.13
Mario Chalmers	40	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-17	15	14.8	17.0	-2.19	16.2	17.6	-1.37
Chris Andersen	33	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	-8	-3	17.9	14.9	3.01	17.2	16.7	0.54
Norris Cole	31	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	-10	1	17.6	15.1	2.44	16.7	17.0	-0.27
Rashard Lewis	62	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	-9	-1	15.3	18.0	-2.68	17.1	16.3	0.83
Dwyane Wade	65	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-10	1	15.4	18.0	-2.62	17.5	14.8	2.71
Ray Allen	50	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.16	-19	0	-19	17.0	14.7	2.29	16.7	17.0	-0.27
Chris Bosh	63	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.10	-18	-1	-17	15.8	16.7	-0.98	16.8	17.1	-0.35
LeBron James	71	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.13	-21	2	-23	16.0	16.3	-0.29	16.7	17.6	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 95, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.03,0,0	96.2%
PHX 107, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
TOR 123, DET 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%