NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	4.6 [908]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +8.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	103		Comeback	1.1 [534]		LVP	Danny Green (SAS): -12.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	46%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	9	40%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Cory Joseph	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	62%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	10	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	12	50%	0.00	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	11	41%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	-0.06	16	53%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	11	58%	0.13	5	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	13	61%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	21	58%	0.06	3	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Earl Watson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	12	33%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	14	36%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	3.5	30.2	18.5	27.4	3.4	30.3	141.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +24.2%

POR +11.6%

POR +12.1%

POR +5.6%

SAS -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	POR	NBA	SAS	POR	NBA
this game	14.4	14.4	15.1	93.9	101.0	105.2
season	15.0	15.1		109.8	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.0		106.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	14.9	15.2	11.8	14.4
POR	11.7	15.1	14.2	17.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	28	32	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.16	6	-17	23	12.0	15.3	-3.35	15.3	14.1	1.22
Matt Bonner	14	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.24	8	-19	27	10.7	15.0	-4.25	16.3	14.1	2.22
Jeff Ayres	14	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.24	8	-19	27	10.7	15.0	-4.25	16.3	14.1	2.22
Cory Joseph	14	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.24	8	-19	27	10.7	15.0	-4.25	16.3	14.1	2.22
Patty Mills	29	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-9	7	14.1	14.5	-0.36	15.1	14.2	0.98
Danny Green	47	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-13	15	14.1	14.5	-0.40	14.2	14.6	-0.37
Boris Diaw	45	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	-2	-7	15.5	13.4	2.13	13.1	15.5	-2.38
Marco Belinelli	54	54	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-5	-1	14.5	14.2	0.32	13.7	15.3	-1.57
Manu Ginobili	37	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	0	-11	15.8	13.5	2.25	13.6	15.0	-1.41
Tiago Splitter	45	47	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	2	-15	14.3	14.4	-0.04	14.8	14.1	0.72
Kawhi Leonard	54	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	4	-19	14.5	14.1	0.40	15.1	13.7	1.36
Tim Duncan	54	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.03	-14	3	-17	15.4	13.0	2.42	14.6	14.3	0.31
Tony Parker	55	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	6	-23	15.4	13.0	2.42	13.6	15.5	-1.95

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	78	72	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.13	13	-2	15	14.6	14.0	0.63	14.0	15.5	-1.50
Damian Lillard	78	77	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.01	17	-6	23	14.4	14.5	-0.08	14.7	13.0	1.73
LaMarcus Aldridge	69	64	0.47	0.04	0.43	0.03	15	-4	19	14.4	14.6	-0.24	15.2	12.8	2.35
Robin Lopez	71	69	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	4	3	15.1	13.0	2.12	14.0	15.1	-1.06
Wesley Matthews	79	77	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.01	10	1	9	14.9	12.7	2.20	14.3	14.4	-0.09
Will Barton	64	63	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	11	-11	13.8	15.5	-1.69	13.9	15.2	-1.36
Thomas Robinson	51	51	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	7	-3	13.3	15.6	-2.37	15.0	13.7	1.34
Earl Watson	4	3	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	16	-21	19.0	14.3	4.74	8.3	14.5	-6.21
CJ McCollum	16	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.13	-6	17	-23	14.0	14.5	-0.52	13.4	14.5	-1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 80, NJN 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
LAC 89, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.76,0.87,0.94,0.9,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
PHI 85, OKC 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%