NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	8.2 [229]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +65.8%
Brooklyn Nets	96		Comeback	2.0 [614]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -20.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.66	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.68,0.68,0.66	0.33	0.31	-0.01	24	73%	0.67	1	-0.01	19	74%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.16,0.12	0.03	0.08	0.00	9	67%	0.22	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.01	7	61%	0.07	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.02	-0.18	0.00	13	54%	-0.02	3	-0.18	2	50%	-0.03

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.11	-0.01	11	59%	0.20	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.02
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.04	0.00	5	77%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	5	67%	0.05	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	9	52%	0.01	4	-0.10	7	71%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,-0.04,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.12	-0.01	15	50%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.06
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.00	-0.13	-0.00	14	43%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.8	35.4	19.4	29.5	3.4	42.4	158.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +95.9%

BKN -25.4%

BKN -20.6%

BKN -2.5%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BKN	NBA	MIA	BKN	NBA
this game	18.3	15.2	15.1	120.0	110.3	105.2
season	15.6	15.7		109.7	105.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		106.7	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	19.0	16.6	20.7	17.3	18.3
BKN	15.3	16.2	16.3	13.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	49	52	0.97	-0.47	1.45	0.33	22	-16	38	17.3	19.6	-2.26	15.8	14.4	1.42
Chris Bosh	66	67	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-6	18	17.6	20.7	-3.06	15.3	15.0	0.22
LeBron James	78	80	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.30	13	-7	20	17.9	22.3	-4.34	15.0	17.6	-2.56
Dwyane Wade	62	62	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.32	6	0	6	18.1	18.9	-0.77	15.2	15.3	-0.14
Ray Allen	51	52	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.37	3	3	0	18.5	18.1	0.36	14.8	15.8	-0.93
Rashard Lewis	19	23	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	5	-4	20.3	17.7	2.59	15.3	15.2	0.06
James Jones	26	26	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.18	7	-1	8	15.3	19.6	-4.26	14.6	15.5	-0.91
Shane Battier	24	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	7	-8	19.5	17.8	1.66	15.4	15.1	0.27
Chris Andersen	23	23	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.01	-12	18	-30	21.2	17.2	3.93	15.4	15.1	0.29
Norris Cole	27	26	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	0.10	-21	27	-48	20.9	17.1	3.79	15.7	15.0	0.62

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mirza Teletovic	30	28	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.04	6	-12	18	15.2	15.2	-0.08	19.1	17.9	1.19
Andrei Kirilenko	28	25	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.01	4	-10	14	16.3	14.7	1.57	19.3	17.9	1.44
Alan Anderson	45	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-10	14	15.8	14.6	1.25	19.9	16.6	3.37
Deron Williams	56	56	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.26	7	-13	20	15.6	14.5	1.04	18.9	17.2	1.72
Andray Blatche	40	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-1	-4	15.2	15.2	0.06	18.3	18.3	0.04
Kevin Garnett	44	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.45	2	-8	10	16.1	14.3	1.72	19.1	17.5	1.55
Paul Pierce	59	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.26	-13	7	-20	14.8	16.1	-1.31	17.4	20.5	-3.11
Shaun Livingston	65	63	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.25	-17	11	-28	14.5	17.4	-2.93	17.4	20.9	-3.51
Joe Johnson	68	67	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.26	-18	12	-30	14.6	17.4	-2.82	17.2	22.3	-5.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.64,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 83, TOR 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.27,0	91.4%
UTA 103, SEA 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.65,0.67,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.15,0.43,0.41,0	91.3%
IND 97, MIA 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.28,0.2,0.16,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.42,0.48,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.53,0.38,0.55,0.43,0.41,0	90.9%