NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	5.1 [814]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +21.4%
Charlotte Bobcats	98		Comeback	1.4 [1009]		LVP	Gerald Henderson (CHA): -12.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.05	-0.02	19	62%	0.27	2	-0.05	12	83%	0.03
Norris Cole	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.03	6	87%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
James Jones	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	7	64%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	12	63%	0.09	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	5	30%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	9	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.00	3	117%	0.18	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Kemba Walker	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.15	0.01	0.05	15	83%	0.25	5	-0.13	5	60%	-0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	60%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	19	41%	-0.03	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.05	0.02	11	44%	-0.02	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.4	33.3	18.5	28.4	3.5	33.3	148.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +21.6%

MIA +6.0%

CHA -0.6%

MIA +22.3%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	17.5	13.8	15.1	119.8	105.4	105.2
season	15.6	15.7		109.7	102.4
opponent	15.1	15.8		103.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.9	14.7	17.9	21.3	17.5
CHA	13.8	13.0	16.4	12.4	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	79	82	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-1	13	17.9	14.7	3.27	14.0	12.9	1.05
James Jones	41	42	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	3	5	18.4	16.8	1.57	13.2	14.4	-1.18
Ray Allen	41	39	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.21	5	6	-1	18.7	16.5	2.14	13.1	14.4	-1.31
Norris Cole	60	61	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	4	3	17.8	16.9	0.91	13.4	14.7	-1.39
Chris Andersen	34	32	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	6	-1	19.7	16.2	3.47	13.7	13.9	-0.14
Chris Bosh	60	62	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	3	5	16.1	20.2	-4.13	13.8	14.0	-0.19
Mario Chalmers	40	43	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.07	10	1	9	16.4	18.4	-1.97	15.1	12.7	2.38
Dwyane Wade	58	60	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	10	-9	16.4	19.5	-3.15	13.9	13.8	0.13
Rashard Lewis	10	9	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	11	-11	15.6	17.7	-2.14	14.7	13.7	0.92
Udonis Haslem	32	35	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	12	-13	17.6	17.4	0.18	14.3	13.5	0.81

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Douglas-Roberts	16	17	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-13	15	12.6	14.1	-1.47	16.8	17.7	-0.84
Anthony Tolliver	12	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-11	11	13.7	13.9	-0.10	13.7	18.1	-4.45
Luke Ridnour	11	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-10	9	13.0	14.0	-0.95	14.4	18.0	-3.56
Gerald Henderson	64	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	-5	-1	14.5	12.3	2.27	17.8	16.8	1.00
Cody Zeller	30	31	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.06	-6	-5	-1	14.8	13.4	1.42	15.5	18.6	-3.12
Bismack Biyombo	63	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-6	1	13.4	14.8	-1.42	18.6	15.5	3.12
Gary Neal	66	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-6	1	13.1	15.7	-2.68	17.5	17.6	-0.10
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	40	39	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	2	-15	14.5	13.4	1.12	17.3	17.6	-0.30
Kemba Walker	82	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.18	-10	-1	-9	14.0	13.0	0.95	18.0	14.4	3.56
Josh McRoberts	81	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	13.9	13.7	0.10	18.1	13.7	4.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 114, MEM 103	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.1,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
WAS 114, ORL 93	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
MIA 107, MEM 82	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.17,0.21,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%