NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	81		Excitement	7.5 [326]		MVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): +24.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	87		Comeback	1.5 [781]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (MEM): -9.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,0.05,0.03	-0.04	0.07	-0.00	8	44%	0.12	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.04
DeAndre Liggins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	17	38%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Jackson	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.10	-0.00	15	50%	0.08	1	-0.16	2	50%	-0.02
Nick Collison	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09	0.01	-0.11	-0.01	19	53%	0.01	3	-0.10	9	56%	-0.07
Serge Ibaka	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	17	36%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.01	0.21	-0.02	14	53%	0.29	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.07
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	-0.00	5	90%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Allen	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	48%	0.04	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.03
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	9	56%	0.08	4	-0.12	7	100%	0.05
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	13	42%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	12	33%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.3	30.7	18.3	35.5	3.4	40.5	158.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +12.8%

MEM +41.8%

OKC -24.6%

MEM +20.7%

OKC -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MEM	NBA	OKC	MEM	NBA
this game	14.1	16.4	15.4	85.3	92.6	104.1
season	14.8	16.5		109.3	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.1	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	16.1	13.8	14.6	12.0	14.1
MEM	15.2	15.6	16.1	18.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeAndre Liggins	17	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-1	-4	14.8	14.0	0.76	15.9	16.4	-0.57
Kendrick Perkins	31	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.01	-6	0	-6	16.3	13.1	3.20	16.0	16.5	-0.58
Nick Collison	29	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	1	-8	14.4	14.0	0.40	15.3	16.8	-1.47
Thabo Sefolosha	36	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	2	-10	15.4	13.3	2.11	15.0	17.2	-2.19
Kevin Martin	66	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.38	3	-9	12	13.2	16.4	-3.23	16.8	15.2	1.60
Serge Ibaka	75	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-5	4	14.3	13.6	0.62	16.7	15.1	1.59
Derek Fisher	57	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.30	-1	-5	4	13.3	15.4	-2.14	16.9	15.6	1.26
Reggie Jackson	74	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-3	0	14.0	14.8	-0.80	16.4	16.0	0.38
Kevin Durant	90	90	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.38	-2	-4	2	14.0	17.2	-3.23	16.4	15.0	1.41

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	42	43	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-3	12	15.7	16.9	-1.24	15.8	12.8	2.98
Marc Gasol	71	71	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.11	14	-8	22	16.4	16.3	0.00	14.7	12.5	2.13
Mike Conley	75	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	2	2	16.4	16.1	0.37	14.0	14.8	-0.80
Tony Allen	67	69	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.31	3	3	0	15.7	18.0	-2.26	14.1	14.3	-0.18
Quincy Pondexter	55	56	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.22	2	4	-2	16.8	15.7	1.04	12.7	16.2	-3.55
Jerryd Bayless	48	48	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	3	0	16.5	16.2	0.26	13.8	14.5	-0.74
Zach Randolph	70	70	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	5	-4	16.8	15.0	1.76	14.4	13.3	1.16
Keyon Dooling	19	21	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	4	-2	16.1	16.4	-0.37	14.8	14.0	0.80
Darrell Arthur	23	23	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.12	-8	14	-22	16.8	16.2	0.63	13.0	14.5	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.58,0.7,0.89,0.78,0.9,0.72,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 100, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.89,0.78,0.84,0.73,1	92.4%
NYK 93, CHH 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.92,1	91.9%
MIL 81, PHX 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.98,1	91.9%