NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	99		Excitement	8.8 [142]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +29.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	93		Comeback	2.6 [349]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (MEM): -21.4%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,0.26,0.26	0.05	0.25	0.03	22	55%	0.40	2	-0.14	3	67%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.06	0.02	13	71%	0.27	2	-0.11	8	100%	0.08
Ed Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	48%	0.01	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.12
Keyon Dooling	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	6	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Tony Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.07	-0.06	0.01	0.02	13	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Tony Wroten	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.09	-0.01	5	50%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	0.00	9	22%	-0.16	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.52,0.45,0.36,0.3	0.30	0.14	0.19	0.04	21	67%	0.44	5	-0.14	12	92%	0.05
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.15	-0.04	0.04	9	86%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	12	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	64%	0.01	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.02	0.01	4	40%	0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.05
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	8	50%	-0.02	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	0	0%	0.00	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	11	25%	-0.13	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.8	37.8	18.7	31.5	3.6	46.6	170.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +15.7%

OKC -22.3%

MEM +37.6%

MEM +18.8%

MEM +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	OKC	NBA	MEM	OKC	NBA
this game	16.3	15.3	15.4	108.8	102.2	104.1
season	16.5	14.8		102.9	109.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		100.6	99.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.8	18.2	15.6	16.7	16.3
OKC	16.5	14.5	15.0	15.3	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Conley	77	76	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.37	10	-4	14	17.7	8.7	8.97	15.7	13.5	2.16
Zach Randolph	79	78	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-2	10	17.0	11.7	5.35	15.6	13.8	1.74
Marc Gasol	82	81	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.33	10	-4	14	16.6	14.0	2.56	15.5	13.8	1.73
Tony Allen	43	41	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.30	5	1	4	17.0	15.7	1.22	16.4	14.5	1.87
Tayshaun Prince	63	61	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	4	-2	17.4	13.8	3.64	16.2	13.5	2.75
Quincy Pondexter	32	35	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	2	2	15.3	16.8	-1.49	13.5	16.5	-3.01
Jerryd Bayless	44	45	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	5	-4	14.8	17.7	-2.97	14.6	16.0	-1.42
Ed Davis	6	6	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.00	-2	8	-10	16.7	16.3	0.38	16.2	15.3	0.88
Keyon Dooling	2	2	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	9	-12	2.5	16.6	-14.12	1.0	15.7	-14.66
Darrell Arthur	13	15	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.10	-1	7	-8	12.4	17.0	-4.58	14.6	15.5	-0.89
Tony Wroten	14	15	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.05	-4	10	-14	8.7	17.7	-8.97	13.5	15.7	-2.16

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	30	29	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-5	4	15.1	15.4	-0.31	15.8	16.5	-0.76
Kevin Martin	59	58	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.05	-3	-3	0	14.6	16.7	-2.13	14.7	19.1	-4.37
Hasheem Thabeet	29	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.12	2	-8	10	15.1	15.5	-0.35	13.5	17.5	-4.02
Thabo Sefolosha	43	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-8	10	16.4	14.4	2.04	17.3	15.5	1.80
Kevin Durant	79	79	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-6	6	15.3	15.4	-0.09	16.6	14.1	2.56
Derek Fisher	50	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.34	0	-6	6	15.2	15.5	-0.27	15.6	17.1	-1.55
Serge Ibaka	67	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	0	-6	16.0	13.5	2.50	17.8	12.2	5.57
Kendrick Perkins	46	47	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.24	-10	4	-14	14.7	16.0	-1.35	16.5	16.1	0.38
Reggie Jackson	52	56	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.36	-14	8	-22	15.4	15.2	0.19	17.1	15.1	2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.55,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 85, ATL 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.62,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.36,0.35,0.08,0	92.2%
NYK 87, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.24,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.15,0	92.2%
IND 74, CHA 71	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.08,0	91.9%