NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	103		Excitement	5.8 [618]		MVP	Kevin Martin (OKC): +20.2%
Houston Rockets	94		Comeback	4.8 [253]		LVP	Serge Ibaka (OKC): -10.3%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.04	0.01	13	74%	0.21	1	-0.00	8	100%	0.04
Derek Fisher	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.06	0.02	6	92%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	0.00	23	56%	0.21	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.03	-0.05	15	53%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	13	36%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	61%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	7	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	12	58%	-0.02
Chandler Parsons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.10	-0.03	0.07	14	78%	0.14	5	-0.13	4	75%	-0.02
Greg Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	22	47%	0.05	4	-0.09	11	73%	0.02
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	11	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.6	2.7	34.6	18.4	28.5	3.3	30.3	150.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +27.5%

OKC +5.8%

HOU -6.3%

OKC +18.4%

OKC +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	HOU	NBA	OKC	HOU	NBA
this game	15.9	15.9	15.4	113.2	104.4	104.1
season	14.8	14.2		109.3	107.9
opponent	15.4	15.5		105.0	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.5	15.4	16.9	17.1	15.9
HOU	15.5	15.9	17.4	14.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	54	52	1.10	-0.60	1.70	0.16	32	-23	55	14.4	18.2	-3.78	15.8	16.0	-0.21
Kevin Martin	76	75	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.10	25	-16	41	15.3	19.3	-3.98	15.8	16.3	-0.55
Nick Collison	44	43	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.16	20	-11	31	15.3	16.5	-1.21	15.1	16.6	-1.50
Reggie Jackson	83	83	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	4	1	16.5	10.2	6.24	15.8	16.7	-0.91
Kevin Durant	82	79	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	8	-7	16.3	12.7	3.64	15.9	15.5	0.48
DeAndre Liggins	17	19	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	6	-3	15.5	16.1	-0.58	16.9	15.6	1.36
Kendrick Perkins	9	8	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.12	-9	18	-27	17.2	15.8	1.42	14.2	16.0	-1.79
Serge Ibaka	47	47	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.08	-11	20	-31	16.5	15.3	1.21	16.6	15.1	1.50
Thabo Sefolosha	43	44	-0.55	1.05	-1.60	0.06	-21	30	-51	17.2	14.8	2.40	16.0	15.8	0.24

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	74	74	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.21	7	-16	23	15.9	15.9	0.00	16.7	12.8	3.84
Francisco Garcia	65	66	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.24	6	-15	21	15.7	16.4	-0.72	17.5	11.9	5.55
James Harden	79	81	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.20	3	-12	15	15.7	17.5	-1.80	16.3	13.0	3.31
Patrick Beverley	58	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.30	4	-13	17	15.5	16.6	-1.11	17.4	13.0	4.44
Aaron Brooks	20	19	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.07	-11	2	-13	17.5	15.4	2.15	13.5	16.6	-3.06
Chandler Parsons	85	86	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-5	1	16.0	13.0	3.05	16.3	9.0	7.35
James Anderson	22	22	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.03	-16	7	-23	16.1	15.8	0.34	11.9	17.2	-5.38
Greg Smith	16	17	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.03	-16	7	-23	15.9	15.9	-0.00	12.8	16.7	-3.84
Jeremy Lin	31	29	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.00	-18	9	-27	15.9	15.9	-0.01	11.9	17.9	-5.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.25,0.2,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 103, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.62,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	90.8%
ORL 98, PHX 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.52,0.34,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.06,0,0	90.5%
UTA 126, LAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.22,0.34,0.38,0.17,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	90.4%