NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	3.6 [874]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +30.4%
Boston Celtics	79		Comeback	1.1 [690]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -18.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.24	0.03	-0.03	26	74%	0.36	4	-0.05	9	56%	-0.04
Mario Chalmers	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.01	6	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	17	44%	0.04	3	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	8	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	8	63%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	14	60%	0.14	7	-0.14	7	71%	-0.01
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	4	80%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Sean Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	14	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.20	-0.01	-0.03	18	24%	-0.14	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.5	35.9	17.4	27.4	3.4	32.6	146.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.6%

MIA +3.5%

MIA +2.2%

MIA +4.6%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	17.6	14.6	15.6	108.9	88.8	102.8
season	15.5	15.5		105.6	99.4
opponent	16.2	15.8		97.1	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	15.9	18.7	19.5	17.6
BOS	16.0	11.8	17.3	13.9	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	84	83	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.15	22	-3	25	17.6	17.0	0.63	14.8	12.0	2.76
Dwyane Wade	74	73	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.23	23	-4	27	17.4	18.4	-0.96	14.3	15.7	-1.43
Chris Bosh	52	50	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.03	16	3	13	18.1	16.9	1.25	14.8	14.3	0.47
Shane Battier	60	58	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.14	17	2	15	18.2	16.3	1.88	15.4	13.0	2.46
Mike Miller	30	31	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	12	-5	16.6	18.1	-1.43	15.1	14.3	0.80
Mario Chalmers	66	64	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	10	-1	18.2	16.0	2.22	14.9	13.7	1.24
Udonis Haslem	43	46	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	11	-3	16.8	18.3	-1.53	14.5	14.6	-0.11
Joel Anthony	6	7	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.12	6	13	-7	17.5	17.6	-0.10	15.6	14.5	1.08
Norris Cole	16	16	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.12	-4	23	-27	16.3	17.9	-1.55	12.4	15.0	-2.60
Juwan Howard	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	22	-25	17.0	17.6	-0.63	12.0	14.8	-2.76
Ronny Turiaf	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	22	-25	17.0	17.6	-0.63	7.6	15.0	-7.39
James Jones	7	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.07	-3	22	-25	17.0	17.6	-0.64	12.0	14.8	-2.76

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sasha Pavlovic	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-20	21	12.4	14.8	-2.42	20.7	17.3	3.47
Sean Williams	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-20	21	12.4	14.8	-2.42	20.7	17.3	3.47
E'Twaun Moore	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-22	25	12.0	14.8	-2.76	17.0	17.6	-0.63
Ryan Hollins	12	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-23	27	12.2	14.9	-2.69	23.1	16.7	6.41
Marquis Daniels	12	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.14	4	-23	27	12.1	15.0	-2.88	22.8	16.6	6.15
Greg Stiemsma	6	6	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-13	7	21.8	14.0	7.79	15.7	17.7	-2.06
Keyon Dooling	28	29	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.25	-14	-5	-9	14.1	14.8	-0.73	18.2	17.3	0.86
Ray Allen	67	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-13	7	14.7	14.3	0.34	17.4	18.0	-0.55
Brandon Bass	62	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	-8	-3	14.6	14.5	0.08	17.6	17.5	0.13
Mickael Pietrus	42	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-9	-1	14.1	15.0	-0.90	16.3	18.7	-2.43
Kevin Garnett	61	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.10	-16	-3	-13	13.8	16.2	-2.39	17.0	18.8	-1.82
Paul Pierce	55	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.20	-20	1	-21	16.5	11.5	4.97	17.1	18.3	-1.19
Rajon Rondo	78	79	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.23	-25	6	-31	15.0	11.5	3.45	16.7	24.3	-7.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 96, MIN 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
DET 87, BOS 72	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.2%
MIN 105, SAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%