NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	4.0 [617]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +6.1%
Boston Celtics	72		Comeback	1.1 [522]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -19.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jud Buechler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	75%	0.08	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.04	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	13	53%	0.04	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Don Reid	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Bison Dele	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	13	54%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	11	53%	0.01	3	-0.02	8	100%	0.03
Joe Dumars	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	10	37%	-0.03	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Christian Laettner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	45%	-0.05	1	-0.00	8	62%	-0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	13	77%	0.14	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	13	57%	0.05	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Schintzius	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Minor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	7	53%	-0.00	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.02	0.02	15	45%	-0.07	5	-0.12	10	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.3	24.5	14.7	25.5	1.8	27.4	118.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +21.2%

BOS -6.0%

DET +13.7%

DET +19.0%

DET +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	20.2	16.8	15.8	111.5	92.3	99.6
season	16.6	15.0		101.4	98.1
opponent	15.8	16.1		100.0	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.0	23.6	20.9	19.9	20.2
BOS	15.7	16.4	18.1	17.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Hill	70	68	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.06	14	1	13	19.6	25.2	-5.66	15.9	22.9	-7.05
Joe Dumars	57	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.13	19	-4	23	20.2	20.0	0.16	17.4	14.7	2.67
Lindsey Hunter	66	64	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	4	7	19.4	24.2	-4.73	17.0	15.8	1.18
Christian Laettner	37	39	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	6	3	21.5	19.0	2.56	16.1	17.4	-1.31
Bison Dele	41	40	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	9	-3	19.0	21.5	-2.56	17.2	16.3	0.91
Jud Buechler	41	43	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	14	-13	22.3	17.8	4.43	17.0	16.5	0.49
Don Reid	28	28	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.10	11	4	7	17.1	21.9	-4.72	16.7	16.8	-0.07
Jerome Williams	47	46	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	14	-13	22.6	16.5	6.06	17.1	16.3	0.75
Eric Montross	3	3	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.01	3	12	-9	10.7	20.5	-9.88	15.0	16.8	-1.83

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	18	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-15	15	15.0	17.3	-2.28	20.6	20.0	0.54
Dwayne Schintzius	3	3	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-12	9	15.0	16.8	-1.83	10.7	20.5	-9.88
Tony Battie	27	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-12	9	16.6	16.8	-0.19	22.0	19.1	2.86
Greg Minor	23	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-14	13	17.2	16.6	0.59	24.2	18.6	5.59
Dana Barros	21	19	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-10	5	16.8	16.8	0.01	22.4	19.4	2.98
Kenny Anderson	57	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.00	-10	-5	-5	16.8	16.8	-0.01	19.4	22.4	-2.98
Vitaly Potapenko	48	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-6	-3	16.9	16.5	0.47	19.7	20.9	-1.22
Ron Mercer	61	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.01	-13	-2	-11	16.8	16.8	-0.01	18.9	25.1	-6.24
Paul Pierce	54	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	1	-17	17.2	15.8	1.33	19.9	20.9	-1.00
Antoine Walker	78	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	0	-15	16.8	0.0	16.76	20.2	0.0	20.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 108, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0,0.01,0	96.3%
MIA 98, BOS 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
TOR 95, POR 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%