NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	6.3 [436]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +30.4%
Indiana Pacers	93		Comeback	3.8 [311]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -14.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3	0.12	0.16	-0.02	23	58%	0.30	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.06
Udonis Haslem	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.07	-0.01	6	87%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
LeBron James	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.06	0.02	27	57%	0.25	5	-0.14	16	75%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	21%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	9	44%	-0.01	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.00	7	80%	0.22	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.03
Paul George	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Danny Granger	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	18	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	10	36%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	57%	0.03	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
George Hill	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	40%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	9	45%	-0.05	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	3.8	35.5	17.0	32.7	3.0	35.2	154.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.9%

IND -7.7%

MIA +9.1%

MIA +8.6%

MIA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.1	15.4	15.6	105.2	100.0	102.8
season	15.5	15.7		105.6	104.2
opponent	15.6	15.8		101.1	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	14.5	13.1	18.1	15.1
IND	16.3	16.2	15.8	13.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	67	66	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.07	17	-9	26	14.6	16.3	-1.69	15.7	14.7	0.91
Udonis Haslem	50	49	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-7	22	15.7	14.4	1.27	14.8	16.0	-1.16
Dwyane Wade	81	78	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	3	2	15.5	13.0	2.48	15.4	15.1	0.38
LeBron James	90	85	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.24	4	4	0	15.2	14.0	1.17	15.0	19.1	-4.09
Shane Battier	60	57	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.31	-2	10	-12	15.1	15.1	-0.07	15.9	14.6	1.22
Mike Miller	41	40	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	7	-6	15.6	14.7	0.82	14.6	16.0	-1.38
Joel Anthony	35	38	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	9	-10	17.0	14.0	2.96	17.5	13.9	3.57
Ronny Turiaf	32	28	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	8	-8	13.3	16.0	-2.63	15.4	15.4	0.01
James Jones	6	6	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	7	-6	10.7	15.4	-4.72	11.0	15.7	-4.69
Norris Cole	18	18	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	8	-8	13.2	15.5	-2.37	14.6	15.6	-1.03

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	59	62	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.18	5	-13	18	15.1	15.9	-0.78	15.0	15.2	-0.22
Dahntay Jones	6	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-4	0	14.7	15.4	-0.77	16.3	15.0	1.29
Tyler Hansbrough	29	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-3	-2	14.9	15.6	-0.76	13.5	15.8	-2.28
Leandro Barbosa	38	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-1	-6	14.4	16.1	-1.63	14.3	15.7	-1.44
Roy Hibbert	58	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-8	8	16.6	13.3	3.32	15.5	14.3	1.22
Paul George	70	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-7	6	15.3	15.7	-0.47	15.3	14.3	1.01
David West	52	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-4	0	16.4	14.1	2.35	15.3	14.8	0.51
Lou Amundson	33	33	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.11	-8	0	-8	13.6	16.4	-2.81	15.4	14.9	0.50
Darren Collison	40	40	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	2	-12	15.3	15.5	-0.15	15.2	15.0	0.27
Danny Granger	80	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.30	-6	-2	-4	15.6	14.0	1.61	15.1	14.9	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.58,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 106, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.22,0.13,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.16,0.24,0.17,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.09,0	92.7%
TOR 80, LAC 77	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.04,0.11,0.01,0.09,0	92.3%
MIA 75, ORL 70	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.28,0.37,0.14,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0	92.1%