NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	8.9 [122]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +80.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	100		Comeback	55.5 [44]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -23.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wilson Chandler	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.11	0.00	5	62%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Kenyon Martin	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.11	0.01	14	50%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.10	0.00	8	62%	0.16	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	6	69%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	8	50%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,0	-0.04	0.05	-0.00	9	59%	0.17	5	-0.16	4	100%	0.10
Al Harrington	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	15	47%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Nene	-0.24	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24	-0.08	-0.15	0.01	9	38%	-0.15	3	-0.09	3	67%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.49,0.8	0.81	0.23	0.60	0.03	27	62%	0.80	0	0.00	12	92%	0.14
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.00	0.14	0.00	7	55%	0.20	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	56%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	0.00	15	35%	-0.09	3	-0.09	10	70%	-0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.17	-0.04	-0.01	4	10%	-0.09	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	1.8	33.2	18.7	26.6	1.8	49.0	160.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +0.5%

OKC +20.4%

OKC +17.9%

OKC +13.0%

DEN -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	14.2	14.8	15.5	100.0	99.0	105.7
season	14.3	15.0		110.7	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.4	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.4	15.5	15.0	15.6	14.2
OKC	13.8	15.1	17.0	13.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raymond Felton	55	55	0.36	-0.86	1.22	0.19	6	-9	15	14.2	14.3	-0.13	15.0	14.6	0.43
Chris Andersen	38	37	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.11	3	-6	9	13.8	14.5	-0.69	15.5	14.5	1.06
J.R. Smith	31	33	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.05	0	-3	3	13.4	14.6	-1.20	14.0	15.2	-1.25
Danilo Gallinari	52	55	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.03	2	-5	7	14.3	14.1	0.19	14.8	14.9	-0.09
Al Harrington	11	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-1	-1	13.5	14.3	-0.88	14.2	14.9	-0.77
Ty Lawson	60	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.40	-1	-2	1	14.6	13.6	1.00	15.1	14.4	0.74
Nene	63	66	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	3	-9	14.7	13.4	1.36	14.8	15.0	-0.20
Wilson Chandler	46	48	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.45	-5	2	-7	14.7	13.8	0.87	14.9	14.8	0.14
Arron Afflalo	61	66	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.56	-5	2	-7	14.3	14.1	0.16	14.6	15.2	-0.59
Kenyon Martin	68	71	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.57	-7	4	-11	13.8	15.2	-1.43	14.8	14.9	-0.04

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	62	59	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.53	9	-6	15	15.2	14.3	0.87	14.5	13.8	0.65
Kevin Durant	88	83	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.48	7	-4	11	15.0	14.0	0.97	14.3	13.6	0.78
Russell Westbrook	75	70	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.56	4	-1	5	14.9	14.7	0.25	14.6	13.4	1.15
Serge Ibaka	73	71	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.46	4	-1	5	15.3	13.6	1.71	13.9	15.2	-1.25
James Harden	67	65	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.38	4	-1	5	14.8	14.9	-0.02	14.4	14.0	0.40
Nazr Mohammed	11	10	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	1	1	14.2	14.9	-0.74	13.4	14.3	-0.93
Thabo Sefolosha	43	40	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	6	-9	14.3	15.3	-1.02	14.5	14.0	0.49
Daequan Cook	19	18	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.01	-5	8	-13	13.4	15.2	-1.81	14.2	14.2	-0.02
Eric Maynor	26	27	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.15	-1	4	-5	14.7	14.9	-0.25	13.4	14.6	-1.15
Nick Collison	41	42	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	-0.21	-6	9	-15	14.7	14.9	-0.23	14.0	14.5	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.19,0.22,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 85, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.11,0.42,1	90.8%
NYK 91, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.15,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.58,1	90.4%
HOU 87, PHX 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.23,0.22,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.36,0.32,0.28,1	90.3%