NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	7.9 [260]		MVP	Lou Williams (PHI): +47.3%
Philadelphia 76ers	86		Comeback	25.9 [38]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -16.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.29	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.29	0.16	0.15	0.02	20	61%	0.32	1	-0.04	11	82%	0.04
James Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	-0.00	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	6	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.01	12	46%	-0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.16	-0.01	-0.18	-0.03	21	48%	-0.07	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.47	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.01	14	53%	0.51	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.04
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	11	45%	0.08	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.06	0.01	11	58%	0.01	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.08	-0.11	0.03	13	61%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	22%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.01	13	53%	0.01	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.3	32.6	18.6	32.0	5.7	36.3	155.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +57.0%

MIA -17.6%

PHI +29.1%

MIA -18.8%

PHI +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	17.4	15.5	15.5	94.3	97.7	105.7
season	16.0	15.5		109.0	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	19.6	13.4	18.1	18.6	17.4
PHI	12.5	19.4	16.2	14.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	60	62	0.40	-0.90	1.31	-0.12	18	-22	40	17.2	18.0	-0.83	16.3	13.7	2.62
Eddie House	5	5	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.04	2	-6	8	23.6	17.0	6.55	9.0	15.9	-6.89
Juwan Howard	3	3	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-2	0	26.7	17.1	9.57	8.7	15.7	-7.07
Mario Chalmers	56	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.57	13	-17	30	16.7	18.8	-2.10	16.1	14.4	1.62
Mike Bibby	26	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.17	-15	11	-26	18.4	17.0	1.42	14.4	15.9	-1.54
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	19	19	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.17	-18	14	-32	18.7	17.1	1.68	14.0	15.9	-1.91
James Jones	36	35	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-1	-2	19.1	16.2	2.92	13.4	16.9	-3.53
LeBron James	79	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.37	-4	0	-4	17.2	19.5	-2.28	15.9	11.6	4.26
Chris Bosh	79	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.46	-4	0	-4	16.7	24.7	-8.07	16.2	8.9	7.29
Dwyane Wade	72	73	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.52	-7	3	-10	16.9	20.0	-3.11	15.8	14.2	1.57

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jrue Holiday	64	67	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.27	14	-10	24	14.7	17.7	-3.09	17.8	16.0	1.79
Elton Brand	66	67	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-6	16	15.7	15.0	0.73	17.2	18.1	-0.94
Evan Turner	49	47	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.46	3	1	2	15.8	15.1	0.76	18.2	16.5	1.76
Andre Iguodala	63	61	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.42	0	4	-4	16.1	14.0	2.15	16.2	20.4	-4.22
Spencer Hawes	44	43	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.11	18	-14	32	15.2	15.8	-0.68	19.5	15.4	4.08
Lou Williams	56	53	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.45	-9	13	-22	16.1	14.4	1.77	18.0	16.5	1.52
Jodie Meeks	38	39	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.09	8	-4	12	14.4	16.3	-1.90	17.1	17.7	-0.63
Tony Battie	22	20	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.05	-7	11	-18	16.6	15.1	1.52	15.4	18.0	-2.63
Thaddeus Young	38	38	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	0.09	-17	21	-38	15.0	15.9	-0.83	16.4	18.2	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.76,0.64,0.61,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.25,0.17,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.24,0.05,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 90, SEA 91	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.14,0.15,1	88.5%
GSW 105, DET 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.28,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.53,0.32,0.36,0.06,0.26,1	87.8%
CHA 98, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.16,1	87.7%