NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	6.5 [518]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +23.8%
Philadelphia 76ers	94		Comeback	3.5 [508]		LVP	Thaddeus Young (PHI): -16.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24	0.13	0.08	-0.02	19	64%	0.29	3	-0.06	12	100%	0.07
LeBron James	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.10	-0.02	15	60%	0.23	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.01
James Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	30%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	0.02	0.03	19	43%	-0.00	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.04

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	13	67%	0.16	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	11	55%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	15	62%	0.11	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	8	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.06	0.00	12	52%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	10	42%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	8	22%	-0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	35.8	17.0	28.7	3.7	35.1	148.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +18.5%

MIA +11.4%

MIA +19.4%

PHI -0.9%

MIA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	16.8	17.3	15.5	117.6	111.9	105.7
season	16.0	15.5		109.0	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.8	13.8	15.1	21.4	16.8
PHI	16.5	17.5	18.4	16.5	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	53	50	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.38	15	-9	24	16.4	17.5	-1.03	17.5	16.9	0.69
James Jones	48	47	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.34	10	-4	14	16.4	17.4	-0.93	16.9	17.7	-0.74
LeBron James	78	77	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-2	10	16.8	17.1	-0.35	17.5	14.9	2.62
Chris Bosh	70	71	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	0	6	17.5	13.7	3.83	17.3	17.3	-0.05
Mario Chalmers	31	30	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.10	7	-1	8	16.1	17.2	-1.09	17.7	17.0	0.68
Dwyane Wade	70	69	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.22	1	5	-4	17.0	15.9	1.08	16.9	18.8	-1.87
Mike Bibby	47	47	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	9	-12	16.1	17.7	-1.60	17.6	16.8	0.81
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	28	29	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	-0.03	-14	20	-34	18.1	16.2	1.97	16.5	17.7	-1.14

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jodie Meeks	53	52	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-7	8	16.8	18.0	-1.12	15.3	19.3	-4.00
Tony Battie	12	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.07	-3	-3	0	18.2	17.1	1.15	15.0	17.2	-2.15
Spencer Hawes	38	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-6	6	17.5	17.1	0.43	16.6	17.0	-0.48
Evan Turner	12	14	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-2	-2	19.5	16.9	2.61	12.2	17.7	-5.52
Elton Brand	74	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-7	8	16.9	20.0	-3.11	17.5	13.3	4.24
Jrue Holiday	73	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-6	6	17.0	19.3	-2.31	17.0	15.6	1.44
Andre Iguodala	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-3	0	17.1	17.9	-0.80	17.6	13.1	4.49
Thaddeus Young	35	38	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	1	-8	17.5	17.1	0.43	18.3	15.7	2.60
Lou Williams	53	54	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.36	-15	9	-24	17.7	16.5	1.23	17.0	16.6	0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.16,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 105, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.03,0.05,0	93.0%
SAS 106, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.28,0.11,0.19,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.16,0	92.6%
MIA 103, ORL 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.04,0,0	92.4%