NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	7.6 [303]		MVP	Cory Alexander (SAS): +27.9%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	2.8 [79]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -27.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Alexander	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28	0.14	0.14	-0.00	8	95%	0.32	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.04
Vernon Maxwell	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.19	0.11	0.11	0.02	20	64%	0.22	1	-0.03	13	100%	0.13
Greg Anderson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	7	78%	0.15	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Jamie Feick	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Courtney	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	53%	0.11	4	-0.13	6	67%	-0.02
Carl Herrera	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	11	42%	-0.05	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.28	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.28,-0.28	-0.09	-0.18	-0.00	7	27%	-0.06	2	-0.22	1	0%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.10	0.02	12	75%	0.23	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	15	64%	0.14	2	-0.09	9	89%	0.04
Shawn Respert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	58%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Rozier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Sharone Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	6	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.04
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	17	44%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	8	44%	-0.05	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	25.7	15.7	23.2	2.5	36.5	129.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.4%

SAS +28.8%

TOR -5.8%

TOR -11.8%

SAS +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	17.3	15.8	15.6	121.8	118.4	104.4
season	16.8	16.1		100.8	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.4		105.6	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.3	16.0	17.9	17.0	17.3
TOR	14.4	16.7	19.0	13.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamie Feick	33	33	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.07	13	-10	23	18.8	16.4	2.45	17.2	14.9	2.27
Vernon Maxwell	76	75	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.35	3	0	3	16.8	20.5	-3.61	16.1	13.9	2.19
Greg Anderson	75	75	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.45	-1	4	-5	17.3	17.6	-0.33	15.7	16.7	-1.10
Cory Alexander	37	37	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	-3	9	19.5	15.6	3.90	16.3	15.4	0.86
Carl Herrera	68	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.40	-3	6	-9	16.3	20.7	-4.40	15.4	17.1	-1.75
Joe Courtney	24	26	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	-2	7	20.5	16.1	4.36	15.0	16.2	-1.20
Vinny Del Negro	72	72	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.31	-5	8	-13	17.0	18.8	-1.81	15.7	16.4	-0.72
Avery Johnson	50	50	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.20	-3	6	-9	15.6	19.5	-3.90	15.4	16.3	-0.86

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clifford Rozier	39	39	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-9	15	16.5	15.3	1.19	17.3	17.3	-0.08
Reggie Slater	14	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-1	-1	17.0	15.6	1.42	15.3	17.6	-2.34
Shawn Respert	12	12	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	1	-5	18.5	15.4	3.13	15.5	17.6	-2.09
Sharone Wright	24	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	7	-17	17.2	15.3	1.94	20.6	16.1	4.44
Walt Williams	60	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.42	5	-8	13	15.7	16.0	-0.23	16.4	19.5	-3.12
Hubert Davis	33	33	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-1	-1	14.1	16.9	-2.76	17.5	17.2	0.25
Marcus Camby	67	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.42	4	-7	11	15.1	18.1	-2.98	16.2	21.3	-5.14
Damon Stoudamire	77	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-4	5	15.3	19.5	-4.18	17.3	17.0	0.34
Doug Christie	74	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.44	0	-3	3	15.5	17.5	-2.04	17.6	15.5	2.09
Popeye Jones	35	33	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	10	-23	17.5	14.7	2.76	19.6	15.9	3.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.28,0.11,0.19,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 96, WAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.1%
CHI 88, LAC 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.11,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.04,0	94.0%
SAS 113, DEN 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.26,0	93.8%