NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	79		Excitement	7.4 [317]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +15.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	83		Comeback	5.8 [429]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -13.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.08	0.01	13	63%	0.17	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	11	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	13	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	14	38%	-0.03	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13	-0.02	-0.12	-0.01	15	50%	0.00	3	-0.13	6	100%	0.04

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.08	0.01	6	83%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.04	0.08	-0.01	16	42%	0.08	1	-0.02	13	54%	-0.08
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Josh Powell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	18	49%	0.11	4	-0.12	5	80%	0.03
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	8	39%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.34,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.13	-0.16	0.02	-0.01	24	37%	0.01	4	-0.14	15	73%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.5	34.2	21.0	29.2	3.6	50.5	167.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -20.5%

LAL +20.5%

LAL +41.1%

LAL +11.9%

BOS -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	LAL	NBA	BOS	LAL	NBA
this game	15.7	17.6	15.3	90.8	96.5	106.0
season	15.5	15.7		105.7	107.9
opponent	15.1	15.7		103.0	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.0	16.4	18.4	16.1	15.7
LAL	21.7	16.4	15.0	17.3	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Scalabrine	2	3	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-4	4	1.0	16.1	-15.06	11.7	17.8	-6.14
Nate Robinson	7	5	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-4	4	13.7	15.9	-2.17	15.2	17.7	-2.54
Tony Allen	10	9	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	5	-14	18.4	15.4	3.04	18.2	17.5	0.70
Rasheed Wallace	61	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	0	-4	16.8	13.2	3.65	18.2	16.2	2.02
Glen Davis	41	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.23	-1	-3	2	15.4	16.0	-0.56	17.2	17.9	-0.71
Ray Allen	82	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-4	4	15.5	20.0	-4.55	17.4	22.0	-4.62
Paul Pierce	82	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-5	6	15.6	16.8	-1.15	17.7	15.2	2.54
Rajon Rondo	82	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-1	-2	15.7	15.8	-0.09	17.4	22.7	-5.26
Kevin Garnett	68	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	0	-4	15.6	16.3	-0.70	17.9	16.2	1.77

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	63	64	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.39	13	-9	22	16.5	20.7	-4.18	16.2	14.4	1.80
Pau Gasol	76	76	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-3	10	17.5	18.5	-1.03	15.8	15.0	0.82
Metta World Peace	83	82	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.51	-1	5	-6	17.7	13.3	4.41	15.5	18.6	-3.06
Kobe Bryant	81	82	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.34	0	4	-4	17.6	18.0	-0.43	15.5	20.0	-4.55
Derek Fisher	57	56	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.43	-5	9	-14	17.8	17.2	0.63	14.7	17.6	-2.95
Jordan Farmar	19	21	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.05	10	-6	16	17.2	17.7	-0.56	18.9	14.7	4.15
Sasha Vujacic	7	9	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.11	9	-5	14	18.3	17.5	0.75	21.3	15.1	6.27
Josh Powell	2	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	4	-4	16.5	17.6	-1.12	1.0	15.9	-14.88
Shannon Brown	11	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.01	-1	5	-6	15.8	17.9	-2.04	13.7	16.0	-2.27
Andrew Bynum	31	33	-0.29	0.80	-1.09	0.06	-12	16	-28	20.2	16.1	4.12	15.0	16.1	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.23,0.32,0.19,0.23,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.46,0.78,0.9,0.78,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 102, WAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.59,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.9,0.92,0.91,1	92.4%
POR 92, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.13,0.2,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.25,0.2,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.95,1	91.7%
POR 96, UTA 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.53,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.19,0.2,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.67,0.84,0.9,0.91,1	91.5%