NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	105		Excitement	2.5 [1244]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +12.7%
Atlanta Hawks	75		Comeback	1.0 [900]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -14.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.00	0.04	13	79%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	10	59%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	9	58%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	9	61%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	38%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	54%	0.01	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.03	8	62%	0.04	4	-0.06	18	50%	-0.04

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	13	63%	0.06	2	-0.02	9	78%	0.01
Randolph Morris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	13	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	17	39%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.15	-0.01	-0.01	15	24%	-0.10	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.4	30.5	18.8	30.3	3.5	30.2	146.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +37.7%

ORL +3.1%

ORL +7.4%

ORL +0.2%

ORL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	17.0	17.1	15.3	125.0	88.2	106.0
season	15.4	16.0		110.1	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.9		106.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.7	18.0	16.6	18.3	17.0
ATL	20.3	14.7	19.4	14.5	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	61	63	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.43	30	0	30	16.3	18.8	-2.52	18.8	12.2	6.61
Jameer Nelson	48	50	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.23	22	8	14	16.0	18.2	-2.22	19.7	13.4	6.34
Vince Carter	39	41	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.19	20	10	10	15.6	18.1	-2.50	18.6	15.8	2.81
Dwight Howard	66	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.07	13	17	-4	17.5	15.1	2.41	17.5	15.7	1.79
Matt Barnes	40	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.18	15	15	0	15.6	18.2	-2.53	19.9	14.6	5.31
Mickael Pietrus	44	44	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.20	15	15	0	18.2	15.6	2.53	14.6	19.9	-5.31
Marcin Gortat	18	18	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.31	17	13	4	15.1	17.5	-2.41	15.7	17.5	-1.79
JJ Redick	45	44	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.19	10	20	-10	18.1	15.6	2.50	15.8	18.6	-2.81
Jason Williams	36	35	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.15	8	22	-14	18.2	16.0	2.22	13.4	19.7	-6.34
Ryan Anderson	23	22	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	30	-30	18.8	16.3	2.52	12.2	18.8	-6.61

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randolph Morris	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.23	-8	-22	14	10.6	17.5	-6.94	12.6	17.2	-4.63
Jeff Teague	23	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.48	-17	-13	-4	16.4	17.4	-1.01	16.2	17.3	-1.01
Maurice Evans	16	16	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.23	-11	-19	8	16.1	17.4	-1.24	16.9	17.0	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	39	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.19	-10	-20	10	16.5	17.7	-1.14	17.5	16.4	1.14
Jamal Crawford	56	57	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.24	-17	-13	-4	16.0	19.3	-3.31	17.1	16.6	0.48
Mike Bibby	41	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	-16	2	17.2	17.1	0.13	17.2	16.8	0.42
Marvin Williams	52	50	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	0.09	-15	-15	0	18.0	15.7	2.34	17.1	16.7	0.36
Josh Smith	65	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.35	-26	-4	-22	17.5	16.0	1.41	16.7	17.9	-1.22
Joe Johnson	64	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.02	-14	-16	2	17.5	15.9	1.69	17.0	16.8	0.23
Al Horford	64	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.02	-18	-12	-6	18.0	14.5	3.46	17.0	16.7	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 123, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
PHI 118, ORL 98	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.22,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
DET 84, NJN 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%