NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	83		Excitement	4.3 [927]		MVP	Jamal Crawford (ATL): +4.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	69		Comeback	2.3 [545]		LVP	John Salmons (MIL): -11.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	17	60%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	11	40%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	12	52%	0.03	3	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	24	42%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Maurice Evans	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	19	53%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	0.05	10	52%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	3	83%	0.03	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	15	36%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	4	40%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	13	27%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.7	30.3	18.8	32.0	3.4	36.3	150.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +28.8%

MIL -3.1%

ATL +14.1%

ATL +8.9%

ATL +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	17.1	16.2	15.3	95.4	80.2	106.0
season	16.0	15.5		109.4	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.8		101.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.7	18.7	15.9	19.5	17.1
MIL	17.4	17.3	16.9	13.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	67	67	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.04	20	-6	26	17.1	17.3	-0.29	16.1	16.3	-0.20
Al Horford	67	66	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.03	18	-4	22	17.1	17.2	-0.10	16.0	16.5	-0.50
Josh Smith	81	79	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.07	21	-7	28	17.3	14.7	2.64	16.2	15.7	0.49
Joe Johnson	80	79	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.03	17	-3	20	16.8	21.0	-4.21	15.8	20.1	-4.33
Marvin Williams	51	51	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.16	2	12	-10	17.0	17.2	-0.21	17.9	13.6	4.27
Jamal Crawford	50	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	13	-12	17.6	16.5	1.16	14.9	18.0	-3.11
Mario West	1	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	13	-12	25.0	17.0	7.97	10.0	16.2	-6.24
Maurice Evans	16	14	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.08	-4	18	-22	16.7	17.2	-0.46	17.0	16.0	1.00
Zaza Pachulia	22	23	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.05	-6	20	-26	17.0	17.2	-0.23	16.4	16.1	0.37

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	12	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-14	14	15.2	16.3	-1.16	13.0	17.8	-4.79
Brandon Jennings	66	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-13	12	16.1	16.3	-0.18	17.6	15.7	1.86
Jerry Stackhouse	45	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-10	6	15.0	17.4	-2.35	17.5	16.8	0.71
John Salmons	73	75	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-14	14	15.8	18.0	-2.16	17.1	17.2	-0.05
Luc Mbah a Moute	38	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-3	-8	18.1	14.7	3.39	15.2	18.5	-3.30
Ersan Ilyasova	24	27	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	-3	-8	16.1	16.2	-0.11	18.1	16.7	1.43
Kurt Thomas	67	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-10	6	16.3	15.8	0.41	18.2	13.4	4.74
Luke Ridnour	29	29	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.00	-16	2	-18	16.3	16.1	0.17	15.5	17.9	-2.41
Carlos Delfino	76	78	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	0.06	-23	9	-32	16.3	15.2	1.09	17.4	14.4	2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.2,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.05,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 101, WAS 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.18,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.8%
CLE 109, NJN 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.3%
PHI 101, ATL 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.39,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0	93.3%