NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	89		Excitement	6.3 [566]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +21.7%
Orlando Magic	99		Comeback	1.6 [680]		LVP	Mo Williams (CLE): -13.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	28	51%	0.12	2	-0.07	24	75%	-0.05
Ben Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tarence Kinsey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gibson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.03	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	10	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	16	43%	0.01	5	-0.14	3	67%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.09	0.01	8	69%	0.25	1	-0.03	19	74%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	8	71%	0.12	2	-0.04	5	60%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.02	-0.04	9	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	13	60%	0.09	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	9	64%	0.12	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.03
Tony Battie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	11	38%	-0.01	3	-0.09	12	92%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	3.7	39.3	20.7	34.0	3.5	48.6	177.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +28.7%

ORL +25.4%

CLE -7.1%

ORL +4.0%

CLE -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ORL	NBA	CLE	ORL	NBA
this game	17.1	14.2	15.5	96.7	107.6	106.4
season	16.9	15.3		110.6	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.2		101.4	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	18.7	17.7	20.0	12.7	17.1
ORL	15.6	14.2	12.8	14.4	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gibson	5	7	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-9	8	13.8	17.3	-3.45	10.4	14.6	-4.12
Tarence Kinsey	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-9	8	0.0	17.1	-17.07	3.0	14.4	-11.36
Joe Smith	40	38	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-9	8	16.1	17.8	-1.71	12.9	15.2	-2.25
Ben Wallace	27	26	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-7	4	20.0	15.9	4.10	13.9	14.4	-0.44
Anderson Varejao	39	39	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-8	6	16.5	17.5	-1.00	14.1	14.4	-0.28
Sasha Pavlovic	50	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-10	10	15.8	18.6	-2.82	14.8	13.5	1.27
Mo Williams	79	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	-1	-8	17.6	13.7	3.93	14.7	11.6	3.06
LeBron James	81	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	2	-14	17.0	17.6	-0.65	13.9	16.7	-2.83
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	57	57	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.28	-8	-2	-6	17.6	16.2	1.35	15.3	12.5	2.83
Delonte West	82	82	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	3	-16	17.0	17.4	-0.38	14.3	13.9	0.38

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	80	79	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.15	20	-10	30	14.3	13.6	0.75	16.9	18.2	-1.36
Rafer Alston	70	69	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.22	16	-6	22	13.7	15.9	-2.19	17.6	15.4	2.23
Dwight Howard	49	51	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	1	8	15.1	13.2	1.93	18.8	15.0	3.81
Rashard Lewis	76	75	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	0	10	14.1	14.7	-0.54	17.2	16.4	0.80
Courtney Lee	71	72	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	1	8	14.0	15.1	-1.11	17.2	16.6	0.53
Mickael Pietrus	53	54	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	12	-14	14.2	14.3	-0.03	15.7	19.0	-3.34
Tony Battie	2	2	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	10	-10	12.0	14.3	-2.29	12.5	17.2	-4.67
Marcin Gortat	49	47	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	12	-14	13.8	14.8	-0.99	15.6	18.6	-3.09
Anthony Johnson	10	11	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.05	-10	20	-30	18.0	13.8	4.22	19.4	16.8	2.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 89, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.94,0.96,1,1,1	94.8%
HOU 96, BKN 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.84,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.87,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%
CLE 89, PHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.78,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.68,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	94.4%