NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	9.3 [111]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +64.9%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	20.9 [38]		LVP	Josh Howard (DAL): -22.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.65	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,0.65	0.03	0.64	0.02	24	50%	0.73	2	-0.08	14	79%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.47,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.35	0.21	0.13	-0.00	16	73%	0.37	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.06
Kenyon Martin	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	-0.00	6	86%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	4	80%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	0.00	10	42%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Johan Petro	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	10	23%	-0.03	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.28	0.28	0.03	0.21	-0.04	12	57%	0.31	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.09	0.14	-0.00	5	67%	0.24	0	0.00	14	86%	0.04
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.12	-0.01	9	65%	0.21	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Antoine Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	5	62%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.05	0.05	0.14	-0.09	0.01	19	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	15	87%	0.02
James Singleton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.13	0.01	15	40%	-0.09	3	-0.13	5	80%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	3.7	38.1	20.4	38.6	3.6	41.1	176.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +79.6%

DAL -14.8%

DAL -23.8%

DEN +1.5%

DEN +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.1	15.5	112.8	111.7	106.4
season	14.4	15.6		109.5	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		107.1	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.1	13.6	17.5	17.3	15.6
DAL	15.9	15.2	12.5	17.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	59	59	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.57	6	-5	11	15.1	16.4	-1.30	16.2	13.3	2.87
Carmelo Anthony	82	84	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.60	2	-1	3	15.0	19.2	-4.14	15.0	16.1	-1.14
J.R. Smith	57	61	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.32	8	-7	15	16.1	14.7	1.40	15.1	15.0	0.13
Chauncey Billups	81	80	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-3	7	15.5	16.1	-0.61	15.3	13.9	1.44
Kenyon Martin	75	74	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.49	0	1	-1	15.7	15.1	0.56	15.1	15.0	0.04
Johan Petro	4	4	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	2	-3	10.0	15.8	-5.80	14.0	15.1	-1.13
Dahntay Jones	28	27	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.13	-7	8	-15	16.5	15.1	1.40	15.1	15.1	-0.02
Anthony Carter	35	32	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.02	-3	4	-7	15.5	15.6	-0.11	15.1	15.1	-0.03
Chris Andersen	21	22	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.09	-1	2	-3	16.3	15.3	1.00	13.4	15.6	-2.25
Linas Kleiza	28	27	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.04	-3	4	-7	16.2	15.3	0.99	14.0	15.5	-1.57

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	54	56	0.35	-0.85	1.20	0.06	10	-11	21	14.6	15.7	-1.03	16.8	13.7	3.18
Dirk Nowitzki	73	74	0.25	-0.75	1.01	0.16	3	-4	7	15.9	12.4	3.48	16.1	13.6	2.48
Erick Dampier	31	32	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.10	6	-7	13	16.2	14.6	1.61	16.9	14.8	2.10
James Singleton	10	12	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.08	-1	0	-1	10.4	15.6	-5.24	13.5	15.9	-2.35
Jose Juan Barea	21	21	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-1	1	17.1	14.5	2.65	18.2	14.8	3.46
Gerald Green	20	19	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	5	-11	14.9	15.1	-0.17	12.1	16.4	-4.39
Brandon Bass	48	47	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.52	3	-4	7	14.4	15.8	-1.41	16.1	15.0	1.19
Jason Kidd	81	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.40	-1	0	-1	14.8	16.9	-2.13	15.2	17.7	-2.48
Antoine Wright	36	36	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.70	4	-5	9	15.9	14.6	1.26	16.9	14.7	2.25
Jason Terry	68	66	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.46	-9	8	-17	14.9	15.6	-0.68	14.7	17.6	-2.98
Ryan Hollins	28	26	-0.92	0.42	-1.34	-0.51	-14	13	-27	14.4	15.4	-0.94	11.2	17.2	-5.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.72,0.84,0.91,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 99, NYK 96	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.86,0.92,0	92.2%
NYK 90, WAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.82,0	90.7%
IND 76, NOH 75	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.26,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.58,0	90.7%