NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	86		Excitement	4.3 [975]		MVP	David West (NOH): +12.1%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	2.1 [1081]		LVP	Rasual Butler (NOH): -11.9%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.01	-0.02	16	60%	0.16	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Hilton Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	3	58%	0.04	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.04
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
James Posey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.05	13	55%	0.02	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.02
Sean Marks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.04	0.03	12	48%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	16	34%	-0.02	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	11	30%	-0.06	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.03	0.06	12	77%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	9	83%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.13	-0.01	0.05	25	60%	0.12	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	-0.03	9	59%	0.08	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.00	-0.05	5	62%	0.07	3	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Jason Hart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.5	33.7	17.7	26.6	3.3	33.3	146.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +50.3%

NOH -6.4%

NOH -6.8%

DEN +12.2%

DEN +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.8	15.5	92.5	116.3	106.4
season	16.6	14.4		105.9	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.5	15.2	20.0	15.0	16.3
DEN	14.5	14.2	14.3	16.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-22	23	6.7	16.7	-9.97	17.5	14.7	2.78
Julian Wright	9	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-19	17	16.6	16.3	0.29	11.2	15.2	-3.93
Antonio Daniels	19	17	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-21	21	13.3	17.1	-3.74	16.9	14.4	2.58
Hilton Armstrong	35	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-20	19	17.7	15.4	2.33	14.2	15.2	-1.01
David West	65	66	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.15	-9	-12	3	16.7	15.4	1.34	15.2	14.0	1.17
James Posey	61	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	-9	-3	15.3	18.2	-2.84	15.2	14.2	0.95
Rasual Butler	60	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.07	-15	-6	-9	16.8	15.4	1.39	14.9	14.7	0.16
Sean Marks	45	44	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.06	-15	-6	-9	15.0	17.5	-2.59	14.6	15.0	-0.38
Chris Paul	89	89	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.20	-24	3	-27	16.7	6.7	9.97	14.6	23.3	-8.78
Peja Stojakovic	78	78	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.20	-28	7	-35	17.2	11.8	5.35	14.8	15.3	-0.53

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	72	71	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.25	27	-6	33	15.0	14.2	0.81	17.5	12.3	5.26
Carmelo Anthony	89	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.20	24	-3	27	14.6	23.3	-8.78	16.7	6.7	9.97
Kenyon Martin	61	60	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.05	17	4	13	14.4	15.7	-1.36	17.3	14.4	2.94
Chris Andersen	50	50	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	4	13	14.5	15.2	-0.69	15.2	17.6	-2.36
J.R. Smith	54	55	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.09	12	9	3	14.9	14.7	0.22	14.9	18.3	-3.38
Nene	67	70	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.08	9	12	-3	15.1	14.2	0.82	17.0	14.3	2.70
Dahntay Jones	35	36	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	19	-17	15.4	14.5	0.91	17.5	15.5	2.02
Anthony Carter	23	24	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	20	-19	13.2	15.4	-2.16	13.9	17.1	-3.20
Jason Hart	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	24	-27	23.3	14.6	8.78	6.7	16.7	-9.97
Johan Petro	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	17.5	14.7	2.78	6.7	16.7	-9.97
Renaldo Balkman	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	21	-21	24.0	14.6	9.37	8.0	16.5	-8.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.76,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 85, IND 102	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
		94.4%
UTA 108, DAL 113	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%