NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	7.3 [332]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +39.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	89		Comeback	30.6 [96]		LVP	Lamar Odom (LAL): -22.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	8	75%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	25	50%	0.14	4	-0.18	10	60%	-0.04
Michael Finley	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	5	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15	-0.00	-0.14	0.00	7	50%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17	-0.02	-0.14	0.01	17	47%	-0.04	2	-0.13	4	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.22	-0.12	-0.14	-0.04	13	36%	-0.10	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.2,0.2,0.4	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	21	59%	0.43	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	62%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.02	5	100%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.01	16	58%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.02	-0.00	9	20%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.14	-0.09	-0.01	12	29%	-0.11	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	4.4	31.9	19.8	28.3	3.7	41.2	154.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +35.8%

LAL +11.0%

SAS -16.3%

LAL +19.4%

LAL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.4	15.4	92.4	95.7	105.7
season	16.5	14.6		104.7	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.3		104.1	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.2	18.4	15.7	15.8	16.7
LAL	14.8	16.7	14.3	12.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	24	23	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.01	5	-9	14	16.8	16.7	0.12	13.7	14.7	-0.99
Brent Barry	22	22	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.04	3	-7	10	16.3	16.8	-0.57	15.4	14.2	1.21
Bruce Bowen	69	69	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.49	18	-22	40	16.1	18.6	-2.48	15.0	12.9	2.05
Kurt Thomas	7	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-1	-2	21.9	16.3	5.57	14.8	14.4	0.42
Jacque Vaughn	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-1	-2	18.0	16.5	1.45	16.6	14.2	2.42
Robert Horry	9	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-6	8	16.4	16.7	-0.29	14.4	14.4	-0.05
Ime Udoka	44	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	-1	-2	17.7	15.7	2.00	15.2	13.7	1.56
Tim Duncan	81	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.51	4	-8	12	16.1	21.5	-5.39	14.5	14.2	0.27
Tony Parker	79	80	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	-1	-2	16.4	18.4	-1.95	14.3	15.3	-1.01
Michael Finley	42	45	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.06	-21	17	-38	16.2	17.1	-0.86	13.5	15.3	-1.76
Manu Ginobili	73	72	-0.83	0.34	-1.17	-0.28	-19	15	-34	17.4	14.0	3.41	13.7	16.8	-3.06

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sasha Vujacic	62	61	0.99	-0.49	1.47	0.25	25	-21	46	14.0	15.4	-1.42	16.9	16.4	0.53
Pau Gasol	76	75	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.38	7	-3	10	13.9	16.7	-2.77	17.0	15.6	1.37
Kobe Bryant	85	84	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.38	2	2	0	14.3	15.6	-1.30	16.5	19.0	-2.51
Derek Fisher	59	59	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.55	-7	11	-18	14.0	15.2	-1.25	16.1	17.8	-1.69
Lamar Odom	66	66	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.60	-10	14	-24	14.4	14.5	-0.06	17.1	15.8	1.25
Jordan Farmar	34	33	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.17	11	-7	18	15.2	14.0	1.25	17.8	16.1	1.69
Ronny Turiaf	17	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.01	-3	7	-10	16.7	13.9	2.77	15.6	17.0	-1.37
Luke Walton	19	19	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	7	-10	16.2	14.0	2.22	16.6	16.7	-0.16
Vladimir Radmanovic	47	46	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.06	-2	6	-8	14.6	14.3	0.27	16.4	17.0	-0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.2,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.45,0.84,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 101, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.46,0.69,0.73,1	92.6%
SAC 91, NOH 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.38,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.46,0.38,0.54,0.78,0.85,1	92.1%
GSW 102, LAC 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.35,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.17,0.29,0.63,0.91,0.96,1	91.5%